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NFL Draft

Favorite Wild-Card Weekend NFL Player Props: Plus-Odds Only

  • The Draft Network
  • January 8, 2021
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Welcome to this new feature here at The Draft Network—Playoff Edition! Those who have followed along with TDN Fantasy's podcasts and video shows are very familiar with our "Locks of the Week," picks against the spread, and the occasional player prop. You've been able to find info on the first two here on the website, but we haven't been posting the latter (before Week 7), leaving those for social media and video shows. That changes now.

Each week, I will post my favorite NFL player props for the Sunday ahead but with a slight twist: all plays will return plus-odds. For those unfamiliar with that term, that means your potential winnings will exceed the amount you're betting. The player prop market is exhilarating, but you can also find your bankroll juiced to death if you never deviate from the standard over/under plays. Customizing your well-researched plays is the best bet.

Without further ado, here are my favorite plus-odds NFL player props for wild-card weekend in no particular order. All are one-unit bets unless otherwise noted. If you'd like to wager on these along with me, head on over to BetOnline's Player Props Builder.

Stefon Diggs at least 8 receptions (+100)

I know Diggs is a little banged up, but I'm shocked to see plus-odds starting so low. There's also almost no value in going higher than this, as nine receptions nets a return of +112 and 10 catches is listed at +189. So we'll stick with eight, a number Diggs hasn't gone under in a full game (he caught seven balls in one half of play in Week 17) since Nov. 1. During the second half of the regular season, Diggs averaged 10.9 targets and 9.1 catches per game. I see no reason why that trend changes on Saturday in a do-or-die matchup.

Ronald Jones at least 63 rushing yards (+100)

In his last three healthy games, Jones is averaging 74.7 rushing yards per game with no fewer than 66 yards. The Washington defense is allowing an average of 83.4 rushing yards per game to running backs this season and is actually allowing about 10.1 more rushing yards in total at home versus on the road this season. Tampa Bay might look to lean on Jones late, as well.

J.D. McKissic at least 5 receptions (+106)

From my wild-card weekend betting preview: McKissic has served in a major role for Washington all season and is averaging 8.4 targets and 6.8 receptions per game in his last five. Tampa Bay also allowed a league-high 6.5 catches per game to running backs this season. I expect the Buccaneers to be up and Washington to be throwing a lot.

Logan Thomas at least 5 receptions (+100)

Thomas has been a major factor in Washington's offense for some time now, and, as mentioned above, I expect them to be throwing a lot late. Week 17 was a mess for all involved in the Sunday Night Football game, but even including that, Thomas is averaging 10 targets and 7.6 receptions per game over the final five games of the regular season. The Buccaneers allow an average of 5.2 receptions per game to the tight end position.

J.K. Dobbins at least 72 rushing yards (+102)

Dobbins has been on a tear to end the season, averaging 82.5 rushing yards per game over the final six weeks. That run started with 70 yards on 15 carries against the Titans in Week 11. I expect to see a similar workload on Sunday against a Tennessee defense allowing 101 rushing yards per game this season specifically to running backs.

Jarvis Landry at least 6 receptions (+121)

In the five games Landry has played in the post-Odell Beckham Jr./post-horrible weather era, he's averaging 8.8 targets and 6.8 receptions per game. He's failed to reach six catches just once in that timeframe. Sure, that was in Week 17 against the Steelers, but I'll take my chances on Landry getting back on track with these odds.

Diontae Johnson at least 71 receiving yards (+102)

In Johnson's last eight games with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, he's averaging 12 targets and 74.3 receiving yards per game. He only has two games with fewer than 71 yards since Week 9. I don't trust the Browns' passing defense, but I do trust Roethlisberger's reliance on targeting Johnson.

2020 Props Tracker: +21.32 units

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