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NFL Draft

Favorite Week 9 NFL Player Props: Plus-Odds Only

  • The Draft Network
  • November 7, 2020
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Welcome to this new feature here at The Draft Network. Those who have followed along with TDN Fantasy's podcasts and video shows are very familiar with our "Locks of the Week," picks against the spread, and the occasional player prop. You've been able to find info on the first two here on the website, but we haven't been posting the latter (before Week 7), leaving those for social media and video shows. That changes now.

Each week, I will post my favorite NFL player props for the Sunday ahead but with a slight twist: all plays will return plus-odds. For those unfamiliar with that term, that means your potential winnings will exceed the amount you're betting. The player prop market is exhilarating, but you can also find your bankroll juiced to death if you never deviate from the standard over/under plays. Customizing your well-researched plays is the best bet.

Without further ado, here are my favorite plus-odds NFL player props for Week 9 in no particular order. All are one-unit bets unless otherwise noted. If you'd like to wager on these along with me, head on over to BetOnline's Player Props Builder.

Note: More bets are likely to be added on Sunday morning when they become available, so please check back.

D.K. Metcalf at least 85 receiving yards (+108)

I'm going to trust that Russell Wilson and Co. keep on rolling this week, which means another big game is on tap for Metcalf. Metcalf has crossed the 85-receiving-yard threshold in all but one game this season and is playing a Bills secondary that'll be without Josh Norman again. Wilson and the Seahawks have been darn good out east lately, and with their top two running backs injured, should be throwing a ton.

Corey Davis at least 6 receptions (+189)

We cashed on this bet last week and I'm going right back to the well again. Davis had a team-high 10 targets in back-to-back games since returning to the active roster—catching six passes in Week 7 and eight last week. I think he can get to the half-dozen mark again this week. With so much attention understandably going A.J. Brown's way, Davis is currently the de facto WR1 for Ryan Tannehill until defenses adjust.

David Montgomery at least 68 rushing yards (+108)

This might be a bit of a controversial one because of Montgomery's inconsistent usage and effectiveness, but the Titans are allowing the 11th-most rushing yards per game this season (128.1) and 112.3 rushing yards per game to running backs specifically. Who in the Bears backfield is going to get work aside from Montgomery? Even with his mediocre yards per attempt averages, if Montgomery gets the 18 carries per game he's had over the last three outings, he'll easily hit this over.

Brandin Cooks at least 6 receptions (+165)

In the three weeks leading into Houston's bye, Cooks was averaging eight receptions and 10 targets per game. What's stopping him now, specifically against a Jaguars secondary allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game and 25 receptions per game to the wide receiver position this season? He also just had 8/161/1 against this team a month ago.

Deshaun Watson at least 3 passing touchdowns (+152)

If you're looking for a bet on this list to skip for bankroll management purposes this is it. Quarterback three-touchdown bets aren't great values, but once it gets over +150 for a player the caliber of Watson in a matchup like this I get intrigued. Watson has looked so much better over his last four games and just threw three touchdowns against Jacksonville a few weeks ago. Watson is averaging 325.8 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns per game in his last four and should stay hot against a team allowing the eighth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL this season.

Antonio Gibson at least 4 receptions (+225)

Last week's Washington-Dallas game followed a completely different script than past weeks. Gibson rushed a career-high 20 times for 128 yards and a score, but didn't have a catch—the game got out of hand so the ground-and-pound model was working. However, I expect things to go a back to what we've seen from Washington over the prior few weeks. Excluding the Dallas game, Gibson was averaging four receptions per game over the previous four contests. Given the more than 2/1 odds handed out here, I had to bet on it.

J.D. McKissic at least 3 receptions (+100)

The same logic from above applies here. McKissic was averaging 6.33 receptions per game in the three games prior to facing the Cowboys, but game script got in the way of replicating those numbers in Week 7. I think we see a return to normal here, and we're getting plus odds on a bet that was close to -200 prior to Washington's bye week.

James Conner at least 89 rushing yards (+112)

While Ben Roethlisberger and his cache of pass-catching weapons can certainly carve up the Cowboys' secondary, I have a feeling the player with the best day might end up being Conner. The Cowboys are allowing an average of 140.6 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. I expect Pittsburgh to get up big and allow Conner to salt the game away.

Sunday Morning Additions:

-- T.J. Hockenson at least 5 receptions (+114)

-- Alvin Kamara at least 7 receptions (+106)

-- Kirk Cousins at least 3 passing touchdowns (+359)

2020 Props Tracker: +3.01 units

Last Week: -0.69 units

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