Merry Christmas! This week’s Friday Night Football matchup features an NFC battle between the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings and the 10-4 New Orleans Saints. There are plenty of playoff implications in this matchup. The Vikings’ playoff hopes end with a loss. While Minnesota only has a 2% chance to make the playoffs this season, a win will at least bump their odds up to 11% before the rest of Week 16 is played. For the Saints, a win clinches the NFC South and keeps their faint hopes alive for a first-round bye. A loss isn’t devastating to their chances of winning the division, but would end all hope of attaining the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

So what will happen when these two teams meet? Let’s get into the game. All odds are courtesy of our friends over at BetOnline.

Spread: MIN: +7.5 (-125) | NO: -7.5 (+105)

Moneyline: MIN: (+275) | NO: (-330)

Total: 52 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Saints haven’t quite looked like themselves over the last two weeks, but after losing back-to-back three-point games and having quarterback Drew Brees back for his second start since returning from his rib/lung injury, they should be able to right the ship against a Vikings team that is 2-5 this season against teams that currently have a winning record (3-6 if you want to include the 7-7 Bears).

While Brees looked quite rusty in the first half of Week 15, he finished strong and should have little issue generating offense against a Vikings team that has the 11th-worst total defense and 8th-worst scoring defense in the NFL. Minnesota struggles to pressure, is one of the lowest sack percentage teams in the league (sixth-worst), and might finish the season with their leading sack-getter on the Baltimore Ravens (Yannick Ngakoue). Essentially, I have little faith that Minnesota can slow down Brees or Alvin Kamara—the Vikings also have the 10th-worst rushing defense in the NFL.

The key for the Vikings to keep this close is if Dalvin Cook can continue the recent trend of success against the Saints on the ground. After being a top-three unit in that regard for most of the season, New Orleans struggled to contain Miles Sanders and the combination of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell over the last two weeks.

Ultimately, the Saints have the better defense and quarterback for this game and (realistically) more on the line. I’m riding with New Orleans to win and cover, earning the Christmas gift of NFC South championship hats and t-shirts in the locker room after the game.

Pick ATS: Saints -7.5

NFL picks ATS 2020: 121-96-6 (56%)

NFL picks ATS 2019: 145-119-3 (55%)

NFL picks ATS 2018: 140-115-12 (55%)

To bet on these games and more, head over to BetOnline.