This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup features an interconference matchup and rematch of Super Bowl 53. The New England Patriots travel to L.A. to take on the Rams in a game that has playoff implications for both teams—fleeting for New England, but significant for Los Angeles.

So what will happen when these two teams meet? Let’s get into the game. All odds are courtesy of our friends over at BetOnline.

Spread: NE: +5 (+100) | LAR: -5 (-120)

Moneyline: NE: (+208) | LAR: (-248)

Total: 45.5 – Over: (-112) | Under: (-108)

While I’m sure we’ll see plenty of highlights from the prior Super Bowl matchup, these teams are nothing like the two that met inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta back in February of 2019. The Patriots are without Tom Brady and a slew of defensive playmakers that helped make their 13-3 win possible. The Rams have an entirely new set of coordinators, some new key pieces on defense, and no Todd Gurley (or C.J. Anderson for that matter).

What we do have is a mismatch in one key area: Los Angeles’ defense versus New England’s offense.

The Patriots have a borderline bottom-10 offense in terms of both yards gained (11st-worst) and points scored (10th-worst). A big reason for that is an anemic passing offense that only bests the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens this season. I know COVID-19 had an effect on quarterback Cam Newton, but I’m still not sold on him being a viable enough passer to be starter-worthy going forward. That will make the Patriots one-dimensional, which is OK against lesser opponents, not against a Rams defense ranked as the third-best unit in the NFL against the run.

The Rams’ offense should also have a slight advantage over an above average, but not great Patriots defense. Rookie running back Cam Akers has come on strong the last couple of weeks, and the combination of him, Darrell Henderson, and Malcolm Brown should find some success against a New England rush defense that ranks in the middle of the pack. The Rams have the advantage in the passing game as well, but the one caveat might be Bill Belichick’s coaching versus a potential Jared Goff blow up game. If Goff doesn’t turn the ball over, the Rams could win in a rout.

It’s a cliche that whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game, but I can’t see a way the Rams lose without going -2 or worse in turnover differential on Thursday night.

Pick ATS: Rams -5

NFL picks ATS 2020: 106-81-4 (57%)

NFL picks ATS 2019: 145-119-3 (55%)

NFL picks ATS 2018: 140-115-12 (55%)

To bet on these games and more, head over to BetOnline.