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NFL Draft

NFL Week 3 Betting: Locks Of The Week

  • The Draft Network
  • September 25, 2020
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We’re back for a third week of NFL betting action. It’s been a tale of two weeks for Jake Arians and I so far. I went undefeated in my Week 1 locks and got swept in Week 2 (thanks, Vikings offense). Jake got swept in Week 1 but was profitable in Week 2. Let’s hope for a steadier Week 3 of wagering. 

If you’ve followed along over the last two seasons of the TDN Fantasy Podcast, you know my and Jake Arians’ “Locks of the Week” have paid out. We’re doing them again this season and adding this written component. Let’s dive in, with all odds being supplied by our friends over at BetOnline.

Jaime’s Lock No. 1: CIN/PHI O46.5 (-105)

I didn’t want to pull the trigger on any spreads, but a few totals tickled my fancy this week including this one. The Bengals’ offense is, dare I say, pretty exciting with Joe Burrow at the helm. There’s no quit in the rookie No. 1 overall pick’s game and he’ll go up against an Eagles defense that’s allowed 64 points already this season (to Washington and the Rams). One could argue that the Eagles aren’t good enough right now for there to be too much garbage time, but if they do look the the playoff team many expected them to be, garbage points still count the same. I don’t expect the Bengals to score 30 this week, but just give me three touchdowns.

As for Philadelphia, they have to start to figure this out sometime, right? Carson Wentz couldn’t have regressed this hard, right? I’m betting a home date against a poor defense will cure a lot of this offense’s woes. It should be a cloudy 76-degree day at kickoff and I expect both offenses to have success. 

Jaime’s Lock No. 2: CHI/ATL O47 (-110)

I have to lock this in now, but I’d wait a little closer to kickoff to see what the status of Julio Jones is. I’d take this total all the way up to 48 if he’s active, but if Jones is ruled out with his hamstring injury, I’ll take the extra point/point-and-a-half they might give bettors if they drop the line to 46—I’d still bet the over on 46 with Jones out, in that scenario. 

The Falcons are the worst defense in the NFL in terms of points allowed this season and second worst in yards allowed. The Bears offense may not be high-powered, but it looks competent this season and they should have plenty of success indoors against this defense. 

As for Atlanta, they’re going to put up points on anybody. Calvin Ridley looks like a star, Russell Gage is so underrated, and Matt Ryan is one of the most underappreciated players in football. The Bears’ bend-but-don’t-break method has payed off against the underwhelming Lions and Giants, but won’t be able to contain the Falcons enough to stay under this total. The ovver is 5-1 in Falcons’ last six games.

Jaime’s Lock No. 3: DAL/SEA O55.5 (-120)

I hate betting an over this high—you literally need two touchdowns per quarter to cash—but this game is going to be an absolute shootout. Both of these defenses are not only bad, but are banged up. Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are both playing at an elite level with healthy offensive pieces. Weather won’t be a factor either, as it’s set to be about 62 degrees and cloudy with only five mile-per-hour wind speeds. Sounds like a great environment for points to me.

These two defenses are allowing 28.5 points and 443 yards of offense against per week to open the season. They’ve both played, and beaten, Atlanta, but one could argue that this is the best offense either has faced so far this season. The game is a fantasy dream and I’m betting it despite it being the highest total of the weekend. The over is 3-1-1 in Seattle’s last five home games.

Eisner’s Locks 2020: 2-3-1 (40%)

Eisner’s Locks 2019: 16-11-0 (59%)

Eisner’s Locks 2018: 25-13-2 (66%)

Jake’s Lock No. 1: Steelers -3.5 (-115)

Jake’s Lock No. 2: Packers +3 (-110)

Arians’ Locks 2020: 2-3-1 (40%)

Arians’ Locks 2018: 16-14-1 (53%)

To wager on these games and more, head over to BetOnline.

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