2021 NFL Draft: What’s The Highest Or Lowest Your Team Could Pick?

This year, the gap between being a good team and being a bad team in the NFL is as wide as it has ever been.

There are currently 15 teams in the league with six or fewer wins. On the other side of things, every single team in the AFC playoff picture has at least 10 wins, and one double-digit win team is going to miss the playoffs in that conference. There just is no middle ground right now, and that is making for quite the finish line when it comes to the draft order.

Though the Jaguars and Jets have locked up the top two picks, the rest of the top 12 is anyone’s game—and I really mean anyone’s game. Even with just one game remaining for each team, there is such a wide range of outcomes for draft positions for a number of teams in the top 15.

So, just like the major outlets outline what each result would mean for potential playoff teams, I decided to give you, the people (Bane voice), a comprehensive look at what kind of range each team in the top 15 has when it comes to how high they can possibly get in the draft order and also how low they can drop.

Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans)

Record: 4-11

SOS: .540

Current Spot: No. 3

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: No. 9

As if things weren’t bad enough in Houston, they don’t even get the reap the benefits of being extremely disappointing this season, as their now top-five draft pick is owned by the Dolphins. Miami has a good chance of this pick staying in the No. 3 spot, as the Texans are facing the Titans in a situation where if the Titans win, they win the AFC South.

If the Texans lose and the Dolphins have that No. 3 pick, it will likely be the most coveted pick in the draft—for ones that would be available—and Miami might be able to fetch a king’s ransom for another team to move up and get a quarterback.

Atlanta Falcons

Record: 4-11

SOS: .550

Current Spot: No. 4

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: No. 9

The Falcons had a little resurgence there when Raheem Morris took over as the interim head coach following an 0-5 start with Dan Quinn before he was let go. But they have since cooled back down and find themselves at No. 4 with one game left. They face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game that has some seeding implications for the Buccaneers—however, they can't win the division, as the New Orleans Saints locked that up. Tampa Bay’s starters will likely start this one, but who knows how long they play.

The Falcons still have a shot at the No. 3 selection, if they lose and the Texans win. And a loss by them locks up No. 4, at worst. This would be huge for them if they’re in the quarterback market with their eyes on Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, or Trey Lance. A win could push them out of range for the quarterback they want, but at the very worst the Falcons’ pick will still be in the top 10.

Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 4-10-1

SOS: .527

Current Spot: No. 5

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: No. 10

The Bengals were the favorites to hold the No. 3 overall pick until they went and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. They still have a chance to get back there, and a loss is quite likely as they face a red-hot Ravens team this weekend, but they’ll need help to climb back to No. 3, even with a loss, and another surprise win could land them all the way at the back of the top 10. 

A loss likely keeps them in range of offensive tackle Penei Sewell. But a win would probably knock them out of that sweepstakes, and instead may force them to turn their attention to an elite cornerback such as Patrick Surtain II or Caleb Farley, or one of the top wide receivers; maybe even a potential reuniting of Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow.

Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 4-10-1

SOS: .531

Current Spot: No. 6

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: No. 10

As the only NFC East team to be eliminated from playoff contention, the Eagles have the smallest scope of range for where they could end up. A loss to Washington this week could put them as high as No. 3 overall, and a win wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, as that tie on their record also caps them from leaving the top 10.

If they’re having any thoughts at all about drafting a quarterback instead of just rolling with Jalen Hurts, they best not make it to five wins. But no matter what, they have big needs at corner and receiver, needs that can be hit with the top players in the class anywhere in the top 10.

Detroit Lions

Record: 5-10

SOS: .504

Current Spot: No. 7

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: No. 12

The Lions are another team that has a chance at that No. 3 spot. Their low strength of schedule right now means a loss from them and wins from just about all the other teams we’ve already talked about means the Lions could be right there for that quarterback of the future. If not, they’re still likely to be a fringe top-10 team with guys like Micah Parsons, Chase, Jaylen Waddle all in range.

The Lions play the Minnesota Vikings this week, which has draft implications on both sides we’ll get to later on this list.

New York Giants

Record: 5-10

SOS: .506

Current Spot: No. 8

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: Playoff Spot

The Giants have the widest range of any team in the NFL. Like the Lions, a loss from them and wins from the teams we’ve already mentioned means they could get as high as that coveted No. 3 overall pick. But a win from them, paired with a win from the Eagles, would mean they win the division, which means they’d be picking No. 19 at the earliest.

Picking No. 3 and picking No. 19 would be two totally different draft strategies.

Carolina Panthers

Record: 5-10

SOS: .529

Current Spot: No. 9

Highest Range: No. 3

Lowest Range: No. 13

Outside of the Giants making the playoffs, the Panthers have the widest margin of potential draft spots of any team that isn’t currently in contention for a division title. Two weeks ago, the Panthers had the No. 4 overall pick and there were plenty of mock drafts out there with them taking a quarterback to really kick start their offensive rebuild. But after their win this week, they’re one win away from possibly moving all the way down to No. 13.

There’s been plenty of debate already about whether or not the Panthers should consider a quarterback selection in the top 10, but if they win this weekend against the Saints, there wouldn’t be a debate; the draft will decide that for them, and they likely won’t even have a quarterback to choose.

If they’re picking in the fringe top-10 range, cornerback, either Surtain or Farley or linebacker Parsons would likely be their top targets. 

Denver Broncos

Record: 5-10

SOS: .567

Current Spot: No. 10

Highest Range: No. 5

Lowest Range: No. 15

The Broncos still have a chance to be a top-five team, which would certainly be nice for them, as they have needs at linebacker and cornerback, which, if you’ve been keeping up with the list up to this point, you know could be targets for a lot of teams. So the higher the pick, the better chance they have at getting the best one. They also might have a quarterback decision to make—probably not possible at No. 15, which is their floor if they win, but at No. 5, all bets are off.

Dallas Cowboys

Record: 6-9

SOS: .465

Current Spot: No. 11

Highest Range: No. 7

Lowest Range: Playoff Spot

Somehow, someway, the Cowboys can still make the playoffs. And yet their poor record and one of the lowest strength of schedules on this list means that if they lose, they’ll jump any team that ties their record. Picking in the top 10 would be crucial for their offensive line and cornerback wishlist. It will likely still be too far down for Sewell, but he’s not the only offensive line option for the Cowboys in their pick range. Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater, and maybe some other surprise options could all be there at varying ranges.

Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 6-9

SOS: .490

Current Spot: No. 12

Highest Range: No. 8

Lowest Range: No. 15

Like the Cowboys, the Chargers have a big offensive line need. With No. 8 being the highest they can go after their win versus Denver in Week 16, they’re likely out of the running for Sewell, the top offensive tackle. But players like Darrisaw and Slater could be great options for the Chargers, too.

Minnesota Vikings

 Record: 6-9

SOS: .508

Current Spot: No. 13

Highest Range: No. 9

Lowest Range: No. 15

The Vikings were once as high as No. 6 overall, but a second-half push for the playoffs puts them outside the top 10. They still have a chance to make the top 10, and the higher the better, but going against a miserable Detroit team in the final game likely brings a win and a pick in the teens.

New England Patriots

Record: 6-9

SOS: .533

Current Spot: No. 14

Highest Range: No. 10

Lowest Range: No. 15

It has been well documented at this point but the Patriots will be awarded a draft slot south of the playoff line for just the second time since 2002. They’ll need a big-time offensive weapon in the draft this year. Whether it’s tight end Kyle Pitts or wide receivers DeVonta Smith or Waddle, the higher the Patriots can get in this order, the better. 

The Pats have picked in the top 10 just once since 2001. They have a chance to do it again if they lose to the unstoppable Jets this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers

Record: 6-9

SOS: .544

Current Spot: No. 15

Highest Range: No. 10

Lowest Range: No. 15 (16?)

Alright, so the tools I used to determine the min/max pick ranges still had the Niners with No. 15 as the highest they could go. But with them just one game back of the Las Vegas Raiders and their strength of schedule projection to be very close (Niners would lose that tiebreaker right now), if they finish with the same record I think they should be able to finish 16th? But maybe my human brain is wrong to challenge the computer. Man vs. Machine chapter 5,000.

Anyways, if the 49ers want a quarterback, they better lose and hope everyone else wins just so they can get in range of trading without mortgaging their next three drafts.

If not, cornerback and offensive line could be good options here.

Washington Football Team

Record: 6-9

SOS: .465

Current Spot: No. 19

Highest Range: No. 8

Lowest Range: Playoff Spot

Washington is currently on the outside looking in with the division in hand. If they win, they’ll be in the playoffs. But if they lose, the winner of Giants/Cowboys will take it. Washington can finish as high as No. 8 with a loss, and because of their terrible strength of schedule, there’s a good chance they’re in the top 10 with a loss. They are one of the teams that has to take a quarterback no matter what. Well, unless they somehow sign Dak Prescott. But outside of that, you better get as close as you can to the top of that order.