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NFL Draft

NFL Conference Championship Betting Preview

  • The Draft Network
  • January 21, 2021
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The NFL playoffs are halfway complete and this is arguably the most enjoyable football Sunday of the season. After back-to-back weeks of multi-day playoff action, the determination of this year's Super Bowl participants all come down to a Sunday doubleheader.

If your team missed the playoffs or lost on wild-card weekend or in the divisional round, there's no better way to get that next-level adrenaline rush than wagering. Plus, if your team is still in the playoff dance, why not double down and bet on them too? Let's walk through the two games on tap for conference championship weekend and find out where the prime betting opportunities lie.

All odds are courtesy of our friends over at BetOnline.

Overall Trends to Know:

  • Road underdogs covered in 54.7% of games in the regular season
  • Road underdogs are 5-3 ATS in this postseason
  • Over cashed on 50.4% of games in the regular season
  • Under is 5-4-1 in this postseason


Spread: TB: +3 (+104) | GB: -3 (-124)

Moneyline: TB: (+154) | GB: (-174)

Total: 51 – Over: (-116) | Under: (-104)

Trends to Know:

  • Buccaneers are 1-1 as road underdogs this season
  • Over is 1-1 in Buccaneers' two games as road underdogs this season
  • Packers are 6-3 ATS as home favorites this season
  • Over is 5-4 in Packers' home games this season

PickBuccaneers O23.5 points (-120). I'm going back to the well again after cashing on this exact bet last week. Tampa Bay has scored at least 24 points in 15 of their 18 games this season—including hitting 30 points in both playoff games. As an offense, they're averaging 33.7 points per game since the midseason blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints and a league-high 32.5 points per game on the road this season. While we might get some snow in Green Bay, little-to-no wind and temperatures in the mid-20s shouldn't faze Tom Brady, who's on fire right now.


Spread: BUF: +3 (-105) | KC: -3 (-115)

Moneyline: BUF: (+141) | KC: (-161)

Total: 54 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Trends to Know:

  • Bills are 2-0 ATS as road underdogs this season
  • Over is 2-0 in Bills' two games as road underdogs this season
  • Chiefs are 3-5 ATS as home favorites; 1-5 ATS in last six as home favorites
  • Under is 5-3 in Chiefs' eight games as home favorites this season

Pick: Bills ML (+141). The Bills have been playing championship-caliber football all year long. As I mentioned in my postgame article last weekend: The Bills have three losses in their 18 games this season. Their first, and worst loss of the season, was to the Tennessee Titans in a road game played under tough circumstances on a Tuesday night. A COVID-19 breakout in the Titans organization set forth a series of on-again, off-again, maybe-we’ll-play scenarios that would take any team out of its rhythm. Buffalo’s second loss was to the NFL’s best team, the Kansas City Chiefs, a team they may very well face again with a Super Bowl appearance on the line. The Bills’ third loss was on the “Hail Murray” in Arizona. The penultimate sentence of that section played out as expected, with the Chiefs hosting the Bills on Sunday night. Normally, I'd throw a bunch of statistics and trends at you, but for this game it's simple: I don't trust Patrick Mahomes' health. He will play—I'd be shocked if he didn't—but he won't be anywhere near 100%. While obviously the concussion or concussion-like symptoms (if it turns out to be a nerve issue) he suffered are of major concern, the potential turf toe he suffered will likely be more impactful for his on-the-field play. There's a razor-thin margin for these teams anyway, and if Mahomes is limited or makes a few more mistakes than usual, the Bills will pull this one out.


My official ATS picks for the Conference Championship Round: Buccaneers (+3), Bills (+3)

NFL picks ATS 2020: 142-116-8 (55%)

NFL picks ATS 2019: 145-119-3 (55%)

NFL picks ATS 2018: 140-115-12 (55%)

To bet on these games and more, head on over to BetOnline.

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