It’s offseason betting time! We may not have weekly lines to debate yet, but we do have season-long win totals, which offer edges as changing rosters and new coaching staffs create uncertainty. It’s best to avoid the teams with tons of offseason juice, in my experience—I don’t want to touch the Cleveland Browns or Los Angeles Chargers—and instead look for teams with less public action that haven’t seen their lines change off the initial offering as much.

The additional game in the new 17-game season makes every over look tasty, but someone’s gotta lose every game that someone else wins. I’ve got two overs and one under I like for the 2021 season that I’ve already bet, and you can find these lines with this juice over at BetOnline.

Chicago Bears: Over 7.5 (-115)

The Bears have yet to win fewer than eight games in Matt Nagy’s tenure (12-4, 8-8, and 8-8), as the strength of the defense under Vic Fangio and Chuck Pagano has given the Bears a high floor and protected a struggling offense. But now, first-time defensive coordinator Sean Desai is tasked with that steep job, so there’s a little less established faith there. The departure of stud corner Kyle Fuller obviously doesn’t help, either.

Of course, Desai coached under both Fangio and Pagano, and has a ton of league buzz as a strong DC candidate coming into the new role. Even if the defense takes a step back, I think it will remain above average in the league, with impact players at almost every position—and the offensive improvements should account for that dropoff.

Nagy’s offense has endured bad to barely passable quarterback play in each season of his tenure, and with rookie quarterback Justin Fields at the helm, should get a huge shot in the arm. Even if Fields isn’t as good early as many media prognosticators expect, he will at worst be a volatile rookie with legit playmaking ability. He has more arm talent and ball-carrying ability than Mitchell Trubisky ever did, which opens up the offense even if he struggles with processing and game management. And if Fields is actually good? This is a number the Bears should comfortably clear.

The concern here is the schedule. It’s a new 17-game, 18-week season, and the Bears project to have the biggest rest disadvantages across the extended attrition period than any team in the league. Even if the Bears start off strong—which can be tough to do with a rookie passer—they may tail off faster than other teams as they take on shorter weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 11.5 (-130)

I… do not get this one!

The Buccaneers have one of the easiest schedules in the league this year, playing in an NFC South with a transitioning Falcons team, still-growing Panthers team, and Brees-less Saints team. They also catch the NFC East in intraconference play, which is certainly the weakest division in the NFC. Sharp Football has their schedule fifth in the league, and that passes the eye test for me.

I respect the argument that the Buccaneers may not fully empty the tank in the regular season, feeling no need to chase regular season wins so long as they secure the division—but! Lest we forget! There’s only one bye week for each conference now, as the playoffs have expanded to seven teams. That bye week is always huge and matters even more with the extra regular season week considered. So I think the Buccaneers stay aggressive.

Beyond that? This team is returning every starter from the Super Bowl run and has settled into a nice balance in the Tom Brady version of the Arians/Leftwich offense. Even if their injury luck from last season vanishes and their depth is challenged, it’s tough to imagine this roster with Brady at the helm delivering anything less than a 12-5 season.

Denver Broncos: Under 8.5 (+110)

This number is inflated given the Aaron Rodgers potential, which may turn people away from it. It sure is fun to think about the Broncos with Rodgers, given the weapons they have and the loaded defense under Fangio. They feel ready to grab a new quarterback and compete.

But as it is, they simply do not have a nine-win quarterback on the roster. That player isn’t Drew Lock, who is 5-10 as a starter through two seasons in Denver, and it isn’t Teddy Bridgewater, who went 5-0 with the Saints and 4-11 with the Panthers. Even if you have the infrastructure for a guy like Bridgewater to succeed, the offensive system under Pat Shurmur doesn’t have nearly the same juice as a Sean Payton offense in New Orleans.

So while this may feel risky because of the Rodgers possibility, if it doesn’t come to fruition, this becomes a very safe bet, as this number would be about a win lower if there were no quarterback rumors surrounding the Broncos.