Who will be this year’s breakout rookie receiver in fantasy? Last year, Elijah Moore and Amon-Ra St. Brown stole the hearts of fantasy managers. The year before, Justin Jefferson finished as a ‘WR1’. While everyone’s focused on Drake London and Treylon Burks this year, there are some second-round wideouts you need to have your eye on. I already dove into the London v. Burks debate. Today, let’s look at Packers wide receiver Christian Watson and Chiefs wide receiver Skyy Moore.

The Packers traded up to pick No. 34 to make Watson the first receiver taken on Day 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft, while the Chiefs drafted Moore seven receivers later. Like with London and Burks, Watson and Moore have been grouped close together in fantasy rankings and big boards. The fantasy community seems to favor Watson, though not by much.

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But who should you draft first between Watson and Moore? To determine this, we’ll dive into four defining factors before delivering a final verdict:

New offenses
Potential opportunities in their offenses
Ceilings
Floors

The key to figuring out which player to draft lies in possibility and outside of naivety. In simpler terms, we can’t assume we know how each player will perform. The goal of this piece is to look at previous trends and data and to project a range of potential outcomes for each player. I’m not predicting which player will have a better season. Instead, we’re determining which player has a better chance of reaching a higher ceiling and avoiding a lower floor.

That starts by assessing Watson and Moore’s current value. To do this, let’s look at their ADPs (Average Draft Position). I used FantasyPros’ consensus ADP tool, which combines a player’s ADP from multiple sites, and Underdog Fantasy’s ADP, which reflects more current trends and the players’ best ball values.

Christian Watson ADP

FantasyPros: WR58

Underdog Fantasy: WR47

Skyy Moore ADP

FantasyPros: WR65

Underdog Fantasy: WR39

Offensive System

Watson: Don’t get it twisted, the Packers are not a pass-happy team. That seems to be a common misconception since they have that Aaron Rodgers guy. Instead, Green Bay was just below average in pass-play rates since Head Coach Matt LaFleur took over. Establishing the run is a crucial aspect of LaFleur’s offense. Could that be why the Packers haven’t sustained fantasy-relevant receivers outside of Davante Adams under LaFleur? It may be a factor, but it shouldn’t be viewed as the main reason. There just haven’t been enough targets to go around to other receivers because Adams rightfully stole most of them. With Adams out the door, we should expect Green Bay to run the ball a bit more, but not enough to make them one of the most run-heavy teams in football, either. Watson can still take over Adams’ role on the outside as Rodgers’ favorite target. However, that role could go to wide receiver Allen Lazard instead. If Rodgers funnels passes to one main receiver, then this can be a great offense for the team’s top wideout. It can still be good if Rodgers doesn’t find his next go-to target, but it would cap Watson’s ceiling.

Moore: Kansas City is a great place for receivers to thrive. Only four teams had a higher pass-play rate than the Chiefs in each of the past two seasons. They also used 11 personnel (one tight end, three wide receivers) at the seventh-highest rate last season. Translation: you want a piece of their receiving core. Since quarterback Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018, only one player not named Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill has averaged six or more targets per game: Sammy Watkins in 2019. Simply put, Kelce and Hill have been the Chiefs’ passing attack. With Hill off to Miami, there’s no telling how targets will be distributed in the offense. Similar to Adams and Green Bay, we have yet to see Kansas City sustain fantasy-relevant wide receivers outside of Hill. Even with Travis Kelce continuing to act as a bigger wideout, this offense is built to sustain a fantasy-relevant wide receiver due to its high passing rate.

Verdict: Moore

Kansas City’s system is far friendlier to wide receivers and their fantasy impact.

Opportunity

Watson: Oh, it’s there. Between the departures of Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay has nearly 15.6 vacated targets per game. Again, I expect slightly fewer passes this season, unless the Packers find their next Davante Adams. But we can’t expect that to happen. Adams was the only Packer to see more than 65 targets last season with a whopping 169. Not a soul on Green Bay’s roster has proven capable of even coming close to that type of usage. There’s a chance Watson is simply the most talented wide receiver on the Packers’ roster but Lazard could also take that designation, especially with how well he finished the 2021 regular season. He scored five times across the final five games. Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers will vie for the starting slot job but do we really expect them to lead this offense, though? Watson’s main competition for targets could come from Lazard, though it’s possible the pair split work.

Moore: Like with Watson, there’s a chance Moore is the most talented wide receiver on the Chiefs’ roster. Kansas City brought in JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to help offset the losses of Hill, Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson. The trio combined for 15.3 targets per game in 2021, so there are plenty of opportunities for the new guys to make an impact. Of course, Hill and Kelce were the only Chiefs to see more than 83 targets. Moore is best suited for an inside role, which comes into direct conflict with Smith-Schuster. It’s no secret I love Moore, but he still has to fend off targets from Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman. While Moore isn’t exclusive to an inside role, that’s likely where he’ll start off and the Chiefs’ willingness to move their skill players around the field opens up more opportunities for Moore, who has experience playing outside at Western Michigan.

Verdict: Watson

Watson gets the slight edge since he has less competition for targets to worry about.

Ceilings

Watson: Watson gets the Davante Adams treatment.

Remember, a best-case scenario is supposed to be extreme. Will Watson routinely see 10+ targets a game? That’s unlikely, yet still possible. Watson would have to acclimate right away to the NFL, which is certainly in the cards. This would hinge on Rodgers and Lazard, too. Lazard would also just need to be nothing more than another guy, in simplest terms. Fifth-year receivers don’t often break out, but hey, it’s possible. As for Rodgers, he’s been the executive director of the Davante Adams show for the last three seasons. If he feels good about Watson, look out. At the very best – emphasis on very – Watson sees 150+ targets from one of football’s best quarterbacks. He also has experience lining up as a big slot receiver, though that likely won’t be his calling card in the NFL.

Moore: Moore leads the team in targets.

Moore won’t be treated like Tyreek Hill because they’re two different players, plus I couldn’t even count on my hand the number of receivers who match Hill’s speed and explosiveness. However, it’s still possible Moore outplays the Chiefs’ veterans. In this scenario, Moore establishes himself as the team’s top receiver, which could translate to 9+ targets per game. As I’ve said, it’s tougher for Moore to navigate through the Chiefs’ receiving room than it is for Watson with the Packers’ receivers. Still, if Moore proves to be Kansas City’s best wide receiver, he can be in line for a hefty target share from Mahomes. Unfortunately for Moore, there is a slim chance he outplays Kelce in any scenario.

Verdict: Watson

Both have high ceilings, but Watson is better suited to reach a higher ceiling than Moore.

Floors

Watson: Watson doesn’t outplay Lazard and Watkins.

There are a ton of unproven receiving options on Green Bay. That includes Watson because, you know, he’s yet to play an NFL game. In this scenario, Lazard builds off his promising finish to last season and takes over Adams’ role. Watkins would also have to prove reliable enough to start over Watson. Perhaps Cobb even regains some footing, too. Besides, the Packers haven’t been afraid to restrict their rookies until they’re “ready.” Luckily for Watson, Green Bay implemented a three-receiver set 70% of the time, so even if Watson falls behind the veterans, there’s room for impact as the team’s third wideout.

Moore: Moore stays behind the veterans on the depth chart.

As with all rookies, we just don’t know how they’ll translate to the NFL. Moore has to fend off Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling, Hardman, and maybe even Josh Gordon and Justyn Ross… all for the right to play second fiddle to Kelce. When playing fantasy football, it can be easy to let biases distract you from other potential outcomes. As much as I loved Moore as a prospect, we simply don’t know if he can outperform the other wide receivers. I’d like to believe he can and will, but ultimately, we have to consider the idea that he doesn’t. Outside of Hill and Kelce, the Chiefs have done a good job at sharing whatever wealth remained to the rest of the receivers. So, Moore can still see the field as a ‘WR4’, though his impact would obviously be mitigated. Moore’s versatility and the Chiefs’ offensive creativity raise his floor, too.

Verdict: Watson

The depth chart and draft capital favor more playing time for Watson rather than Moore, even if he doesn’t earn a starting job.

Final Verdict: Draft Christian Watson over Skyy Moore

Beyond Treylon Burks and Drake London, these are the two rookie receivers you should target. They both have the talent and potential opportunities to far exceed their ADPs. While Moore is in a more fantasy-friendly offense, Watson gets the edge in all other aspects. At their current values, you should put a little more weight on their ceilings. They’re both fine gambles as your ‘WR3’ and great picks for anything beyond, especially if you already have two established producers at the position.