Welcome back to our weekly look at college football’s lines. Here, we take one of the most volatile sports in one of the most volatile years and pretend to be able to predict it. It’s kinda fun.
Here are a few lines on which I’ll make strong plays, as well as some fun fliers for a loaded Week 13 of college football. I’ll be around on Twitter if there are any other games you’re looking at. Odds are supplied by our friends over at BetOnline.
Maryland @ Indiana (o63.5) — 12:00 p.m. ET
This line has been on the rise, and I think 65 will be my limit, so get it now if you like it.
Indiana put up 35 on Ohio State, and while Ohio State’s defense isn’t what it usually is, it’s not like Maryland’s passing defense is that much better. In fact, both of these defenses are significant bottom-dwellers in explosive rates allowed, and Maryland is coming off of two weeks off after a couple of statement wins against Minnesota and Penn State. They’re going to have some juice, expecting to see Indiana on a letdown week following the close Ohio State loss.
I expect a close game throughout that, even if Indiana keeps a lead from pole to pole, Maryland never falls out of. It’s not the way of either team to sit on a lead anyway, so if this thing ends up a runaway for Indiana, I still expect them to score in the high 40s. Maryland may have residual COVID-19 absences, but they should still be expected to score at least 20.
With the Colorado and West Virginia games called off, here are three more bets from my card that you can still buy at a good line on Saturday morning:
Utah (+7) @ Washington — 7:30 p.m. ET
Utah was sloppy against USC in their opening game, but most teams this year have gotten better after shaking off the COVID rust. Washington has a freshman quarterback and has struggled to throw the ball all year, preferring a run-heavy script that the Utes will adjust to on defense. Expect a gross, low-scoring game.
Kent State @ Buffalo (o67.5) — 12:00 p.m. ET
These are two of the three, maybe four, best offenses in the MAC against two bottom-dwelling defenses in the conference. Akron put points on Kent State and Northern Illinois dropped 30 on Buffalo, and while both teams have put out better defensive performances since, they also have played terrible offenses. I think this is a boat race from pole to pole.
Kentucky @ Florida (o61) — 12:00 p.m. ET
I pretty much side with Florida overs indiscriminately, but this is a particularly juicy line. Kentucky is still getting billed as a run-first, defense-heavy team—they've got the run, but they don't have the defense, and the Gators will stay active even late into a blowout to keep Kyle Trask's stats inflated for the Heisman. So long as we get 10/14 points from the Wildcats against a bad Florida defense, we should be clear here.
Nebraska @ Iowa (-13.5)
If this is below two touchdowns, I’m buying.
I don’t think Iowa is necessarily good, but once again, they’re well-coached, high-effort, and mistake-free after a couple of shaky weeks to open the season. They lost their first two against Purdue and Northwestern, and they seemed like bad losses but are of a higher quality as the season goes on—now, they’ve won three, including suffocating wins over Michigan State, Minnesota, and Penn State. Now, those are some bad Big Ten teams, so the question here is pretty simple: do you think Nebraska is a good Big Ten team or a bad Big Ten team?
They’re a bad Big Ten team, and Iowa should be able to control this game accordingly. Nebraska needs to be able to run the football in order to move on offense, and Iowa is a top-20 running defense by pretty much every metric. Iowa needs to be able to run the football in order to move on offense; Nebraska is outside of the Top-100 in rushing success rate allowed. Throw in the quarterback uncertainty for the Cornhuskers, and you’ve got yourself a good formula for a classic Iowa shutdown. The under is also attractive here at 53.5, but I feel stronger on the side.
A lot of heavy dogs to like this week. I am still suspicious of Oregon, so Oregon State at +13.5 and +390 is a fun one if you’re looking for something to wager for Friday night. Jermar Jefferson might be the best player on either offense. I’ll also take Vanderbilt at +14 and +430 at Missouri, because Vanderbilt has honestly not been bad over the past few weeks and Missouri struggles to score in droves. I wanted West Virginia as well, but that game looks to be called off.
- Aug 22, 2022
- Aug 22, 2022