An AP Top-25 team has lost to an unranked team the last three weeks following Appalachian State’s upset victory over Coastal Carolina on Wednesday night. That sets the stage for what could be another wild weekend in college football. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 8.
No. 10 Oregon (+2) vs. UCLA
3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 60.5)
Oregon is currently listed as a slight underdog for Saturday afternoon’s Pac-12 title with UCLA. If the Ducks remain a dog at kickoff, it would be the first week since the FBS/FCS split in 1978 in which two AP Top-10 teams are underdogs against unranked opponents (the other top-10 underdog is Oklahoma State, which is at Iowa State this week).
If the Ducks fall, every team in the Pac-12 will have at least two losses in their first seven games. According to ESPN Stats & Information Group, since 2000, the only times one of the current Power 5 leagues didn’t have a team go 6-1 or better through seven games was in 2020 (Big 12 and Pac-12). Of course, due to the pandemic, last season was untraditional. In any other year this century, none of the current Power 5 leagues have seen each of its teams lose at least two of their first seven games of a season.
Oregon Key Trends
- The Ducks are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games versus the Bruins.
- That said, Oregon is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall and is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.
- The Under is 5-0 in the Ducks’ last five road games.
UCLA Key Trends
- The Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 conference games.
- UCLA is just 10-21 ATS in its last 31 games as a favorite.
- The Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams when UCLA is the host.
No. 8 Oklahoma State (+7) at Iowa State
3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 47)
As of this writing, Oklahoma State is the second-largest underdog an AP Top-10 team has been against an unranked opponent over the last 40 years. No. 3 Utah was a 6-point dog against USC in 2015 and lost 42-24, while No. 9 Notre Dame was an 8.5-point dog at USC and lost 10-0 in 1998.
According to ESPN Stats & Information Group, the Cowboys are just the third team in the AP Poll Era (1936) to start a season 6-0 despite outscoring its opponents on average by 7 points or fewer (OK State’s average margin is exactly 7.0). The 1985 Penn State Nittany Lions started 6-0 despite outscoring opponents by an average of 4.0, while the 1939 Notre Dame Fighting Irish were 6-0 while outscoring opponents by an average of just 4.8.
Oklahoma State Key Trends
- The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
- The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
- Oklahoma State is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.
Iowa State Key Trends
- The Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games.
- Iowa State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite.
- The Cyclones are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games played in October.
LSU (+9) at No. 12 Ole Miss
3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 76)
Following LSU’s upset win over Florida last Saturday it was reported that the program and coach Ed Orgeron agreed to separate following the end of the 2021 season. ‘Coach O’ is just 21 months removed from a 15-0 run to a national championship behind Heisman-winning QB Joe Burrow, but the Tigers finished a disappointing 5-5 in 2020 and are just 4-3 this season.
According to ESPN Stats & Information Group, LSU’s 9-8 record since winning the 2019 National Championship is tied for the second-worst through 17 games by any national title winner in the AP Poll era. (TCU was 6-11 after winning the 1938 title, while Auburn started 9-8 after winning the 2010 national championship.)
LSU Key Trends
- The Tigers have covered in four of the last five meetings between these teams.
- The Underdog is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these teams.
- The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between LSU and Ole Miss in Oxford.
Ole Miss Key Trends
- The home team has covered in seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams.
- The Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between LSU and Ole Miss overall.
- The Rebels are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
No. 5 Ohio State (-21) at Indiana
7:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 60.5)
The Buckeyes have won each of their last 26 meetings against the Hoosiers, which is the longest on-field win streak by one team over another in Big Ten history. Those 26 victories by Ohio State over Indiana span from 1991 to 2020 and are two more wins for a Big Ten member over a conference opponent than Michigan’s 24 consecutive victories over Indiana that spanned from 1988 to 2019. The Buckeyes also had a 24-game win streak over Northwestern from 1972 to 2003.
Ohio State’s dominance over Indiana isn’t just impressive by Big Ten standards, as it’s also the longest active on-field win streak by a current FBS team over another current FBS team.
Ohio State Trends
- The Buckeyes are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings versus the Hoosiers.
- That said, Ohio State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games at Indiana.
- The road team has covered in five of the last five meetings between these two teams.
Indiana Key Trends
- The underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
- The Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams in Indiana.
- The Over has also cashed in four straight meetings between these teams.
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