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NFL Draft

Who Are The NFL’s Early Best Bets To Win The Super Bowl?

  • The Draft Network
  • May 18, 2021
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It’s offseason betting time for gambling degenerates like me as early lines offer the most easily exploited edges, as well as good fun during the stupor of the offseason.

Using our friends at Bet Online, I pulled the top current Super Bowl odds and highlighted my favorite bets for May that may make me look like a genius come next February.

That, or I’ll just never reference this article again.

  • Kansas City Chiefs +575
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +600
  • Buffalo Bills +1100
  • Los Angeles Rams +1100
  • San Francisco 49ers +1400
  • Baltimore Ravens +1600
  • Cleveland Browns +1600
  • Green Bay Packers +1600
  • Indianapolis Colts +2000
  • Denver Broncos +2500
  • New England Patriots +2800
  • New Orleans Saints +2800
  • Seattle Seahawks +2800

Green Bay Packers (+1600)

The winningest team over the last two seasons combined (tied with Kansas City Chiefs), the only reason the Packers are this low on the list is because of the uncertainty around quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ future with the team. The reigning MVP clearly has issues with the front office and management, and his willingness to let those questions linger invites doubt in the betting market.

That fine; we’re gonna take advantage of that. Remember, Rodgers’ issue with Green Bay is with the front office, not the coaching staff. He’s tight with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, clearly developed a stronger relationship with head coach Matt LaFleur over the last season, and the primary author of the last two NFC playoff departures—ex-defensive coordinator Mike Pettine—is no longer with the team. Sure, Rodgers’ buddies in wide receiver Jake Kumerow and quarterback Tim Boyle are no longer with the Packers; but Rodgers has been in the league long enough, and seen enough turnover, to know that that’s an inescapable problem; not like he can force a trade Detroit or Buffalo to hang out with his buds anyway. And for all of Rodgers’ blustering over the roster construction, he has an elite receiver in Davante Adams, still one of the league’s better offensive lines, and a supercharged Kyle Shanahan system which gives him a healthy amount of line of scrimmage control. Those two NFC playoff exits? They were both in the NFC Championship Game. Rodgers knows he’s close to a second championship in Green Bay, and he won’t want to give that up for a place like Denver or Miami, which could be a championship team, but has yet to go against the burden of proof.

Simply, Packers at +1600 is a greater discount off of what their price really should be (about +1000) relative to the likelihood I see of Rodgers actually getting traded. So there’s good value here. Rolling through quarterback Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will be tough, but there isn’t much competition in the division, and if the NFC West cannibalizes itself in the regular season, Rodgers will be afforded home playoff games in Lambeau. That makes for an easier run. 

Seattle Seahawks (+2800)

In the eight years that Russell Wilson has started for the Seahawks, they’ve won double-digit games seven times and made the playoffs seven times. Wilson is going to start for the Seahawks again this upcoming season. It’s about as simple as that. Much of the offseason drama around Wilson and Seattle has died out as he settles into place with his new offensive lineman in Gabe Jackson—surely he’ll never take a sack again. More importantly, Wilson has a new offensive coordinator: ex-Rams passing game coordinator Shane Waldron.

The pass-happy Seahawks emerged with a bang and faded down the stretch, as injuries, different defenses, and some Wilson’s regression all coalesced into a hot mess of a passing game. Wilson’s biggest issue as an individual: struggle to target the intermediate middle of the field against two-high defenses. To that end, the boot-action approach of a Sean McVay-inspired Waldron offense should give him some intermediate throwing windows without the need for deep dropbacks—the addition of pass-catching tight end Gerald Everett helps in that regard, as well. 

I’m not as worried about head coach Pete Carroll’s determination to return to a run-heavy script; the Seahawks did that for much of Wilson’s career and still experienced a lot of success. Of course, when it comes playoff time, those margins get finer, and there’s no elite defense to lean back on. Seattle’s defense is about as thin on the depth chart as I can remember, so a slough through the playoffs—especially as a wild card—could get tricky. But there’s enough offensive juice with a top-three QB at the helm that I’ll take the Seahawks (+2800) at a substantial discount to their division rival Rams (+1100) and 49ers (+1400), both of whom have quarterbacks who are both new to the team and worse than Wilson.

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