By now, everyone knows who Trey Lance is, right? He’s the kid from Minnesota who was passed over by several big-time programs just a few short years ago. He resisted overtures from programs that had alternative plans for him—some included even playing on defense. He believed in his ability to play quarterback and decided to play at North Dakota State.
In 2018, he played in two games but decided to redshirt. He completed his only pass of the year and also ran for two touchdowns (44 yards and 29 yards) on the year. In 2019, he started all 16 games and guided NDSU to a National Championship. He was voted Most Outstanding Player in the National Championship Game and his team finished the year a perfect 16-0. From a personal standpoint, Lance had an excellent, record-setting season. He did not throw an interception in 287 pass attempts. He completed nearly 67% of his passes while throwing for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns. He also ran 169 times for 1,100 yards and 14 additional touchdowns. He set the FCS record for passing efficiency (180.6) and total offense (3886).
In this unique pandemic year, NDSU will play only one game during the fall and another eight games in February. However, with Lance being a likely top-15 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, he will only get to play one game this season before declaring. Because of that, more than 20 NFL scouts have descended into Fargo, N.D. this weekend to watch NDSU vs. Central Arkansas. What will NFL scouts need to see from Lance to feel more comfortable with his projection?
Progression!
Make no mistake about it, Lance had an excellent 2019. However, there were some things he needed to improve on. In his first year as a starter, he showed good command of the offense, the ability to call plays from a huddle, and even set the protection of the front. He displayed good arm strength and very good mobility within the pocket. However, his accuracy was a little spotty at times, particularly on downfield throws. He missed some of those deep throws and also wasn’t as accurate on the move as he was when he had time to set his feet.
NFL scouts will also like to see if he’s improved in the nuances of the quarterback position, particularly in his ability to manipulate safeties with his eyes, feel the rush without seeing it, and keep his eyes downfield while scrambling. Another point of contention for NFL scouts is his inability to protect himself as a runner with the football.
Lance took an awful lot of hits last season. Some of the things he’s able to get away with in college will not apply in the NFL. Defenders are bigger, more explosive, and just as fast as you are. He needs to show progression in knowing when the play is over and living to fight another day. He will quickly learn that when the ball is in his hands, so are the futures of many within his new organization and their respective families, so taking care of himself and his body will be a concern to whichever franchise picks him.
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