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NFL Draft

What Must Happen For Buccaneers To Win Super Bowl

  • The Draft Network
  • July 7, 2020
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Welcome to the 2020 installment of the “How Your Favorite Team Won The Super Bowl” Series.

In this adventure, we’ll take a good, hard look at select NFL teams, show you their Super Bowl odds heading into the season, give you a little overview on what they’ve got to work with and what might be going on in their facility, then proclaim three key factors that must go in their favor in order for them to be crowned atop football’s Aggro Crag when all the confetti has settled. 

For some, the list of variables that need to go right might not only be plausible, but expected. For others, their three factors might require a bit more creativity.

We start with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

State of the Franchise

Bruce Arians enters 2020 as his second year as head coach of the Buccaneers. Last season didn’t go exactly to plan at 7-9, but it was a young team. It was also a team that featured the most entertaining man in football—both in the best ways and worst ways—quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston, playing on the fifth year of his rookie deal, made NFL history when he threw for 33 touchdowns but also 30 interceptions.

The turnovers proved to be more detrimental than the touchdowns, and the team made a change in the offseason. Long-time GOAT Tom Brady signed a two-year deal with the Buccaneers to ride off into the Tampa sunset after a 20-year career in New England. Brady’s presence also brought noted WWE 24/7 Champion Rob Gronkowski onto the team to play tight end.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs defense is young, but promising. A mix of experience at quarterback and in the coaching staff, as well as athleticism from some of the top players, should be a good recipe for Super Bowl Sundae (get it?).

Preseason Super Bowl Odds

14/1 (fifth-best)

What Must Happen For Buccaneers To Win The Super Bowl

1. Interception Percentage Under 2.0; Yards-Per-Attempt Above 7.5

All the record-breaking stats Brady recorded over the past 20 years don’t mean jack squat to the Buccaneers. It is only about what the now 42-year-old can do going forward.

To Brady’s advantage, this crop of Bucs weapons will look like an embarrassment of riches for the vet. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are two of the best receivers in the game, and with a guy like Brady throwing them the ball, that shouldn’t change. The Bucs are also three-deep at tight end. Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate make for the most talented tight end room in the NFL bar none. The running back room isn’t solidified, so that’s somewhat of a question mark. But the team does still have some faith in running back Ronald Jones to be a dynamic guy back there, and the offensive line should be decent at worst, top 10 at best.

If you ask me, all of that has to come down to two important factors in Brady’s production: his interception percentage has to be below 2.0, and his yards-per-attempt has to be above 7.5.

The Bucs are likely going to leave some meat on the bone going from Winston to Brady. Winston threw for a league-high 5,109 yards in 2020. Brady likely won’t be getting close to that number, but the Bucs don’t want him to. Instead, the Bucs would much rather Brady be more efficient with his throws, rather than stat-stuffing. The stats that would be the most telling for that would be his interception percentage, which is, as you would expect, the percentage of throws Brady makes that are intercepted. Very few quarterbacks advance in the postseason with an INT percentage over 2.0. Funny enough, Brady is actually one of the few who has. However, Brady hasn’t recorded an interception percentage of 2.0 since 2011.

At the same time, Brady must still keep his yards per attempt up. He cannot just be dumping the ball off in a quick-hit offense to keep turnovers down. Though the offense was built with Winston’s gunslinging mentality in mind, the talent around Brady should still be more than enough for him to keep that yards per attempt high. He might not be pushing the ball down the field the way he did in his Randy Moss days, but he still needs to run the Arians system: huck it and chuck it.

2. Young Defense Is Top 10 In Takeaways

During the first half of the season, the Bucs’ pass defense couldn't stop a nosebleed. They were giving up the most passing yards per game in the NFL and had yielded 300 yards through the air to six of the first nine quarterbacks they faced.

But when the team decided to move on from cornerback Vernon Hargreaves, everything changed. In the final six weeks of the season, the Bucs’ young pass defense of Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Jamel Dean was one of the best, not giving up a single 300-yard game to end the season. 

The Bucs finished the season with 12 interceptions, which ranked in the bottom half of the league. That number has to not only be in the top half, but the top 10 for them to be crowned champions.

When Jon Gruden was head coach during the team’s Super Bowl era, he challenged his soon-to-be historic 2002 defense to not just get takeaways but turn them into scores. That motivated them and turned out to be the catalyst for their championship. It doesn’t have to be touchdowns, but the Bucs need more takeaways. More possessions for Brady; more control of the clock; fewer points for the other team.

3. Here’s The Kicker

When people talk about who Brady’s best friend has been over the majority of the last two decades of his success, many will mention Gronkowski, some would say wide receiver Julian Edelman, some might say Wes Welker. But the truth is, Brady’s best friend has been kicker Stephen Gostkowski.

Gostkowski was the Patriots’ fourth-round pick in 2006, and was their kicker for the next 14 years. His name was called in some incredibly tough situations, and he always seemed to deliver. Coming away with a guaranteed three points once you cross the 35-yard line really adds up. For as much as the Bucs hope they’re moving the ball, they have to be at least getting three points when they get in range.

That’s where second-year kicker Matt Gay comes in. Gay is coming off a season where he struggled early. However, once he settled in, he really started to get in rhythm. He finished the season with 35 field goals made and a 77% conversion percentage. That number needs to be at or above 85 percent.

If it is, he should finish the year in the top five for scoring, and that should be a key factor in how far the Bucs go in the postseason. 

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