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NFL Draft

How Many Yards, TDs Will Saquon Barkley Have In 2020?

  • The Draft Network
  • June 19, 2020
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New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley galloped into the NFL as one of its most talented and exciting players and still carries that tag heading into year three. An ankle injury cost Barkley three games of his sophomore season, yet he still crossed the 1,000-rushing-yard threshold for his second straight season since being taken with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Barkley looked healthy and as good as ever when he returned from his injury in Week 7. He capped off his 2019 season with 539 total yards and five total touchdowns in the final three weeks. What does the former Penn State Nittany Lion have in store for 2020?

MyBookie.ag has the following posted totals for Barkley’s statistical output this season:

Rushing Yards: 1,250.5 (over -120; under -120)

Rushing TDs: 9.5 (over -115; under -115)

Barkley is a sensational pass-catcher out of the backfield and that, obviously, is a huge part of his game. That’s why it’s extremely important to look at strictly his rushing workload for these prop bets and not confuse touches with carries. 

Excluding the 2019 Week 3 game against the Buccaneers where Barkley left in the first half with that aforementioned ankle injury, the Giants running back is averaging about 16.79 carries per game in his two-year career. Projected out over 16 games, that brings Barkley’s seasonal workload to 268.57 carries. Let’s just round down and use 268 from this point forward.

Barkley is averaging 4.83 yards per attempt in his career. That equals 1,295.1 rushing yards over 268 attempts, which is over My Bookie’s posted total. Barkley needs either 259 rushing attempts at his career average, or 4.67 yards per attempt over 268 carries to hit the over. There’s not a lot of injury wiggle room built in, but he doesn’t have to stray too far from his career averages to pull off the over in 15 games. Betting on running back health is always risky, but if I had to pick a side I’d go with over 1,250.5 yards (-120) in 2020.

Next up is the touchdown prop, which should be noted is rushing only. 

Barkley has 17 career rushing touchdowns or one per 28.12 carries. Over 268 carries that equals… 9.5 touchdowns, right on the posted total by My Bookie. That makes this prop bet a complete stay away for me.

It’s difficult to find a ton of value on player prop bets when they involve one of the most prominent figures in the league on one of the most popular teams. However, if you believe Barkley plays 16 games in 2020, the over on his rushing yards is tantalizing. In his short sample size with Daniel Jones at quarterback instead of Eli Manning, Barkley was averaging more rushing attempts and receiving fewer targets. That might not excite fantasy football players—although the difference wasn’t major—but that is a good sign for those focused strictly on his rushing workload.

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