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NFL Week 11 Best Bets

  • The Draft Network
  • November 18, 2021
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In addition to my picks and research which you can hear on the Hot Read Hits Podcast, here are some Week 11 notes on why I'm targeting these games, courtesy of BetPrep:

By Tommy “The Hitman”

49ers at Jaguars (+6.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The 49ers are hiding Jimmy Garoppolo, running the ball on 24-of-26 (92.3%) first down plays in Week 10, that’s the highest rate for a team on first down in a game this season.

Garoppolo is sensitive to pressure and the Jags are creating it recently: The Jaguars have been lively the past two games, especially up front. They stone-walled both Josh Allen (5.6 Y/A) and Carson Wentz (5.3 Y/A) who had been productive fantasy scorers entering those matchups. In those games, the Jaguars pressured Allen and Wentz on 41.1% of their dropbacks, allowing those passers to complete 12-of-29 passes for 150 yards (5.2 Y/A) on those dropbacks.

Garoppolo has completed just 49.0% of his passes for 6.6 Y/A under pressure this season as opposed to a 71.3% completion rate and 8.8 Y/A when kept clean. The Jags are also stopping the run this season, allowing 3.8 YPC to backs (fifth least).

But Trevor Lawrence is really struggling, coming off the bye passing for 4.4, 4.5, and 4.6 yards per pass attempt the past three weeks.

The look ahead on this line was San Fran minus-4 and the line has been over-adjusted for the 49ers' big win on Monday. Look for a run-heavy game plan from San Francisco. But the Jags have stuffed the run this season. Give me the Jags plus the points.

Texans (+10.5)  at Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Titans are failing at pass protection, but the Texans don’t get pressure; Houston ranked bottom nine in sacks (19) and bottom three in QB hits (39). Over the last three games, the Titans have had bad pass-block grades over 55.9, 47.5, and 40.1. For context, the Dolphins are the league’s worst YTD at 48.9.

The Titans' offense without Henry has had a putrid 3.5 and 4.6 yards per play over their two games. Tennessee is averaging 4.0 yards per play the past two weeks (31st) after 5.5 YPP prior (23rd). The Titans have produced a gain of 20 or more yards once every 23.7 offensive plays, the lowest rate in the league. 

This is a letdown spot for Titans after playing five straight big games against above-average opponents (their five straight wins against prior-year playoff teams is a record).

Tennessee has a league-high 20 players currently on IR, including Julio Jones and Henry. : This is a play against the Titans. And in 10 quarters with Tyrod Taylor as the quarterback, Houston is actually +8 in point differential this season. The Titans' offense is struggling and I don’t believe this roster is very good due to all of their injuries. I flat out just don’t trust what I consider to be an average team to cover this margin.

Steelers at Chargers (minus-5.5), Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

My power rank has the Chargers favored by 6.0. The Steelers have a putrid offense. They’re 31st in the league in yards gained per play on first down (4.2 yards). The Steelers are last in the league in success rate per drop back (41.7%).

Pittsburgh may be without T.J. Watt for this game after he left last week due to a knee injury. When Watt missed Week 3 due to injury, Pittsburgh was only able to pressure Joe Burrow on three of his 19 dropbacks. The Steelers also placed Minkah Fitzpatrick on the COVID list, putting his status in doubt. The Steelers are absolutely decimated injury-wise.

Despite Pittsburgh’s superior defensive reputation. Steelers and Chargers are surprisingly equal in YPP allowed at 5.6. Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been as strong as years past and now is decimated with injuries. They could be down WR Claypool, WR Smith-Schuster, Roethlisberger, Watt, DT Tuitt, Fitzpatrick, CB Haden.

I see the Chargers in a bounce-back spot off a loss to the Vikings given the injuries/COVID issues with the Steelers. This Pittsburgh team needs its defense to carry them but it is missing too many pieces.

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