Last year, I wrote a piece on the five second-year players that I thought were developing nicely in Year 2, with the hope of featuring those players who are drafted not for their Year 1 projection, but for their Year 2 and Year 3 outlook. Once you get outside of the first round of the NFL draft, that’s what you’re hunting: players who may give you something to kick off the season, but are more likely to return value a season or two down the road.
That article in 2019 highlighted such names as Jaire Alexander, D.J. Chark, and Mark Andrews. This year, we’re looking at three third-rounders, a fourth-rounder, and a seventh-rounder, all of whom have held down starting jobs for at least the last few weeks, and are emerging as critical players on their respective rosters.
So I’m back to the well in 2020, here to ID those prospects you may have loved two years ago, may have forgotten over the course of last season, and now need to revisit as they step back into the national spotlight, officially settled into NFL play.
Tennessee Titans OG Nate Davis
Nate Davis was a draftnik darling for most of the 2018 season, especially following an eye-opening performance against Tennessee as the right tackle for the Charlotte 49ers. Most in the industry viewed him as a guard prospect despite playing tackle, and Jon Robinson and the Titans’ staff clearly agreed when they selected Davis early in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
The fit was perfect. An absolute mauler in the running game at 320 pounds, Davis was a much better climber and mover in the second level than you’d expect for a man his size, and accordingly was well suited for one of the most bruising rushing attacks in the league in Tennessee. But when Davis first took the starting job in Week 4 of 2019, he needed time to adjust to the quicker rushes and tighter lanes of the interior, and accordingly ramped up to the quality of play the Titans expected by the playoffs.
https://twitter.com/geoffschwartz/status/1317939680520830977
In Year 2, Davis has picked up exactly where he left off, and with Jack Conklin gone in free agency, first-round draft pick Isaiah Wilson on the COVID-19 list, and Taylor Lewan down with injury for the rest of the season, Davis’ quality play is becoming all the more important for the Titans’ dominant running game. With his tackle background, don’t be surprised if the idea of pushing Davis to the outside is floated later in the season.
Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin
I spoke a bit about Gaskin on my timeline after watching his film last week against the Niners, and following a 126-yard, 22-touch game against the Jets, it feels appropriate to give him a larger space here—he’s just outside of the top 10 in yards from scrimmage this season.
The 234th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, Gaskin and fullback Chandler Cox (the 233rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft) have taken over the Dolphins’ backfield as Chan Gailey has installed a heavy-hitting, power-blocking identity in the running game. A shorter running back with a tremendous head for the game, Gaskin is as clever as any veteran runner in sneaking behind pullers, darting through gaps, and manipulating linebackers with his footwork behind the line of scrimmage to squirt into the third level.
https://twitter.com/BenjaminSolak/status/1316109775839600642
But this was never the concern with Gaskin coming out. The worry was his build and athleticism, especially after a modest 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. Head coach Brian Flores highlighted the preparation aspect of Gaskin’s Year 1 learning curve, including his habits in the weight room, as the biggest change in his sudden Year 2 emergence. Gaskin looks spry but strong, his frame fully capable now of handling NFL punishment. For the foreseeable future, he’s the Dolphins’ bell cow back.
Los Angeles Rams RB Darrell Henderson
We’ll stay on running backs for this one, though we’ll move forward about 200 picks in the draft. Henderson received dark horse Offensive Rookie of the Year hype once drafted to the red-hot Rams with the 70th overall pick, and absolutely goose egged: 39 rushes, 147 yards, some injury struggles, and a ton of missed opportunities.
https://twitter.com/JMoyerFB/status/1311063555454636032
Henderson was considered a perfect fit for the Rams’ zone-heavy attack because of his athletic tools: he’s wicked explosive and can beat you with contact balance, power, or elusiveness in the open field. Unfortunately, Henderson did not run much zone in college: in Memphis’ backfield, Henderson was running behind a puller-heavy, RPO approach that often asked him to read one block, hit one lane on a vertical path, and just outrace linebackers and safeties trying to parse complex backfields. For the Rams’ wide zone paths, with a ton more decisions available and some additional nuance needed to maximize blocks, there was a long and steep learning curve.
Henderson has dialed in on that a bit, but he’s also been met halfway by Sean McVay, who is running more split zone and duo to keep Henderson on vertical paths, which is when he’s the most dangerous. After another running back pick in Cam Akers seemed to represent a direct challenge for the second-year pro, Henderson took some opportunity following an Akers injury in Week 2 and with it began ripping off the explosives that many expected in his rookie year. For the first time in Week 5, he took the majority of the running back snaps in Los Angeles. It’s still a committee, but he’s the head, and the best home run hitter they’ve got.
Indianapolis Colts LB Bobby Okereke
The Colts defense is one of the most enjoyable in the league to cover, both from the perspective of a scheme analyst and a draft analyst. Those things go hand-in-hand: they run a ton of split-safety, Tampa 2, soft zone coverage that you don’t see prevalent in the league, and accordingly prioritize players that you don’t expect other teams to. Never forget the public response, of which I was a willing participant, to the Colts’ selection of Darius Leonard. That’s a multi-year All-Pro who has been critical running the rail for the Colts in Tampa 2.
Well, after hitting on Leonard, the Colts immediately added a carbon copy in Bobby Okereke: wicked fast, wicked long, sticky in man coverage. The Stanford product was often guessing more often than you liked in his run fits and could be soft as a tackler, so he was only going to bring early value as a coverage linebacker. And that’s what he did for the Colts in Year 1, limiting opposing receivers to 7.4 yards/reception.
https://twitter.com/ZachHicks2/status/1318273648701091841
What has been exciting for the Colts is how well Okereke has slipped into Leonard’s MIKE role following his injury. Okereke is filling aggressively against the run, making hits between the tackle box, and securing tackles on the hoof and into the sideline as well. He’s no Leonard, but the Colts protected their investment in Leonard while adding to their short-zone prowess when they selected Okereke, and now that they’ve lost their captain on defense, they’re still staying afloat.
Seattle Seahawks NCB/S Ugo Amadi
A multi-year starter, team captain, community leader, and special-teams maven for the Oregon Ducks’ secondary, Amadi is the sort of player that every coach wants to draft—but every GM is nervous about the combination of size, speed, and toughness for league play. Betting on 5-foot-9 defensive backs rarely goes well.
But the Seahawks have a good history drafting defensive backs and went for the local kid with a ton of chutzpah and spirit. They were rewarded for their faith: Amadi took the exact path you’d hope for a special-teams selection. He was an elite punt gunner in Year 1, was thrust into the starting slot role following an injury to end the season, and basically kept his head above water.
Entering Year 2, he was more prepared, the seal broken, and his NFL career underway. Amadi remains a huge special-teams player for the Seahawks, but following the Jamal Adams injury, he’s become a quasi-safety starter who spends a ton of time in the box and over the slot. He’s bringing value as a glue guy, a utility tool player, and proving to be sticky enough in man coverage to hang against NFL athletes. This is the ideal fifth defensive back for any team.
https://twitter.com/byalistaircorp/status/1311036682808905728
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