It seems like winning an obnoxiously large amount of Super Bowls comes with a big price, and it’s time the New England Patriots dig deep into their pockets. After two decades of unmatched success, which includes six Super Bowl victories, and arguably the greatest head coach-quarterback combination of all time, the Patriots are reeling.
New England is 2-5 and, based on past teams with the same record making the postseason, have a 4.8% chance for a playoff appearance in the post-Tom Brady era. The odds certainly aren’t in New England’s favor, and the team is in danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2008. This isn’t a Tom Brady problem. This isn’t necessarily a quarterback problem; the Patriots do have a former NFL MVP, Cam Newton, under center, albeit not as healthy or productive as he was during that 2015 season.
The Patriots would still be a fringe playoff team with Brady or any other high-caliber signal-caller, because, while winning at an all-time rate, they failed to fill their roster with depth.
“Look, we paid Cam Newton $1 million. I mean it’s obvious we didn’t have any money. It’s nobody’s fault,” head coach Bill Belichick said Monday on his weekly WEEI radio appearance. “That’s what we did the last five years. We sold out and won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth and played in a AFC championship game. This year we had less to work with. It’s not an excuse, it’s just a fact.”
Did New England really sell out to win Super Bowls? Well...
"The structure of the league is the structure of the league. That isn't going to change," Belichick said.
It’s a good point, and when looking at the unprecedented season that saw a string of defensive stars opting out due to COVID-19 concerns and the $28.5 million in dead money, which is seventh-most in the NFL, there are things out of the Patriots’ control—at least when it comes to the former.
New England’s troubles didn’t just start this season. They have been looming since the 2017 NFL Draft—the Patriots had just four draft picks that year, their fewest since 2002. It’s not just about the quantity, but the trading of draft picks for players that never panned out. In 2017, New England traded its first- and third-round picks to the New Orleans Saints for wide receiver Brandin Cooks and a fourth-round selection. The Patriots traded a second-round pick to the Carolina Panthers for defensive end Kony Ealy and a third-round selection; and a fourth-round pick to the Indianapolis Colts for tight end Dwayne Allen and a sixth-round pick. Cooks lasted a single season before he was traded, Ealy was waived prior to the start of the 2017 season, and Allen played two seasons but only had 16 total starts and 13 receptions.
The Patriots made it to two Super Bowls since 2017—splitting a win and loss in back-to-back seasons—so while they still found success, the deficit was slowly growing larger. There were some more swings and some more misses, particularly in the first round, including the oft-injured offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn and the also injured and inconsistent running back Sony Michel. New England also used a second-round pick on cornerback Duke Dawson in 2018 who was traded to the Denver Broncos the following offseason. The Patriots drafted wide receiver N’Keal Harry in the first round of the 2019 draft and used their second-round pick on corner Joejuan Williams. Harry has been spotty and Williams hasn’t started a game in two seasons.
New England never built up its roster well enough to support Brady’s successor and probably not even Brady himself if he were still playing for the Patriots in 2020.
If anyone, literally anyone, in the NFL can beat the odds facing the Patriots, it’s Belichick. But given the road to get here, particularly when considering recent draft classes and trades, it might finally be time to pay the piper.
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