Julian Edelman has a unique opportunity in the 2020 season.
The 11th-year wide receiver—he missed the 2017 season with a torn ACL—can prove he’s not just a byproduct of Tom Brady. With Brady now in Tampa Bay and his replacement, Jarrett Stidham, scheduled to take over, Edelman can move past the bromance that helped New England to three of their six Super Bowls and show he can be New England’s most reliable pass-catcher. Period.
Edelman, who was selected in the seventh round of the 2009 NFL Draft, isn’t an unproven talent. In his decade with the Patriots, Edelman has been the top wide receiver since his breakout 2013 season and holds an obscure record for most receptions (seven) in the first half of a Super Bowl. In all but three seasons— 2014, 2015, and 2017—he led New England in receiving yards, topping out at 1,117 yards in 2019. He’s coming off one of the most productive seasons of his career with 100 receptions, an 11.2-yard average, and six touchdowns.
It’s good momentum to bring into 2020, but Stidham is on a completely different tier from Brady’s. He has just two NFL completions through three games. Edelman won’t just have to re-think his expectations but completely reset them.
But “Julian is Julian,” one unnamed teammate recently told NFL Network’s Mike Giardi.
“He hates excuses,” they added. “He hates to lose. He's already got the red ass about this season. People thinking we're no good and [that] he's just a product of Brady."
In the last six years, Edelman has had 100-plus reception seasons in all but one of them. He’s averaged no less than 10 yards per catch during that span almost entirely under Brady. If we want to identify Edelman’s production with another passer, we can look to the stretch in 2016 when Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett were under center. Brady was suspended for four games, for the Deflategate scandal, and Garoppolo and Brissett saw their first substantial starting time with the Patriots. During that four-game stretch, Edelman was targeted 27 times. He had 19 receptions for 196 yards with a catch rate of 70.4%.
Those are not awe-inspiring numbers, especially considering he only made up for 27% of the total completions between Garoppolo and Brissett. Prior to Garoppolo suffering a shoulder injury that propelled Brissett into action his rookie season, Edelman caught all seven passes for 66 yards in his lone game with Garoppolo. I wouldn’t make the Stidham-Garoppolo comparison, but Stidham is more developed than a raw, rookie passer. If Edelman’s number from Week 1 of 2016 is a clue of what to expect with an underdeveloped backup then 76 receptions for 784 yards would be the approximate benchmark entering the 2020 season. The oddsmakers like the Stidham-Edelman fit a little more and set Edelman’s 2020 output at 924.5 (over -105, under -135), according to MyBookie.ag. I would lean toward the under (-135) here.
Edelman’s likely production would be more reminiscent of his 2018 season, a campaign shortened by a four-game suspension due to a violation of the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy. He finished with 74 receptions for 850 yards in the regular season, which isn’t far from the aforementioned projected total.
Stidham is by no means the worst option—he just isn’t the best, but New England is working with what it’s got. Stidham has received comparisons to the Cleveland Browns’ Case Keenum—who played and started in his first season with the Denver Broncos in 2018 and fell flat—and the Las Vegas Raiders’ Derek Carr. Stidham has shown fairly good pocket awareness, dating back to his collegiate play, and better mobility than Brady—who is statuesque and almost comical to watch run.
Edelman recently participated in a throwing session organized by Stidham, using it as a jumpstart to the preseason work when, or if, training camp begins. He’ll provide Stidham with a reliable, veteran option and can very well continue to be the best pass-catcher; the receiving corps also features Mohamed Sanu and N'Keal Harry with a tight end room that includes Matt LaCosse and two rookies, Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Edelman will be entering the season with a chip on his shoulder, but a great receiver cannot force production from the pocket. He would be wise to temper his disposition and expectations while we all adjust to the new Patriots.
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