In Week 1, Josh Allen overthrew a wide open wide receiver in the back of the end zone. The game was already well within the Buffalo Bills’ control, so it really didn’t mean much for their routing of the New York Jets. But due to the narrative around Allen for the last few years, it was the throw that stuck out.
Bills fans felt slighted on behalf of their quarterback, and understandably so; Allen finished the win with 312 passing yards, 57 rushing yards, and two passing touchdowns. The biggest takeaway from that game should have been the well-rounded play of Allen leading his team to victory, not one overthrow. I was certainly guilty of that as someone who didn’t watch the full game. But we often know that’s not how the media works.
As a few more weeks went by and as Allen continued to play well, the narrative around Allen did begin to change. There was more appreciation for what Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was doing with Allen and his passing weapons. The more wins the Bills stacked up, the better the turnaround story became for Allen.
Here we are now four weeks into the season. I’m not here to say that Allen is turning his narrative as a quarterback around. No, today I am here to tell you that 2020 isn’t just turning out to be a nice story for the third-year quarterback. Week by week, it’s becoming an MVP-caliber season.
Now, before everyone gets all up in arms with their “THERE’S NO WAY JOSH ALLEN IS ANYWHERE NEAR RUSSELL WILSON FOR MVP” tweets, calm down. I am not here to cast my quarter-season MVP vote to Allen over Wilson. However, I am here to build the case that these two players might be closer than you think.
Let’s first acknowledge a few of the other quarterbacks who have their names in the conversation, as well.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is currently on an other-worldly pace passing the football—due to situations in which his defense has forced him to play hero in every single contest they’ve been in—and already has 1,690 passing yards in just four games. That number means Prescott is on pace to shatter the current single-season passing yards record set by Peyton Manning in 2013 of 5,477—Prescott’s current pace is 6,760 yards. I also have to make sure I mention the names of both Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, who both have thrown nine passing touchdowns and zero interceptions and are currently undefeated and on top of their divisions with still another game to go before Week 4 is in the books. Rodgers has been playing without his top passing weapon in Davante Adams, and will be doing so again in the Packers’ Monday night matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. That certainly deserves extra praise with his big stats.
But right now I do believe the race for MVP features Wilson at the top with Allen not far behind, as two quarterbacks who both have their teams undefeated on the season and looking nearly unstoppable, at times.
When it comes to passing yards, Allen has Wilson beat at 1,326 to 1,285. Wilson has Allen beat in yards-per-attempt, but not by much, as Wilson is sitting at 9.4 and Allen is at an even 9.0. Allen and Wilson are both above the 70% threshold with completion percentage. But of quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 passes, Wilson is top of the list at 75% while Allen is ninth at an even 70%. Wilson also bests Allen in touchdown passes with a league-leading 16, but Allen is second in the NFL with 12. As for interceptions, both have been great in that category, as Wilson has two (one going straight off the hands of his own receiver) where Allen just has one. And when it comes to quarterback rating, Wilson is once again the best in the league at 136.7, but Allen is right behind him in second place at 122.7.
When it comes to more advanced numbers, according to Player Profiler, Allen is top five in the NFL in both air yards thrown and air yards completed. His deep ball completion percentage of 60 is currently top 10, which is the biggest area of concern Allen had going into the season. Through three weeks of the season, the only team that had a higher DVOA ranking for passing offense (via Football Outsiders) than Allen and the Bills was Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
There is no second-team MVP award. You either win it or you don’t. There has not been a quarterback better than Wilson through four games this year. Although flashier names like Rodgers, Mahomes, and even Prescott are building strong cases to start the season, Allen is absolutely in that group as a potential winner of the highest individual honor when it’s all said and done.
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