A successful season for an NFL franchise is fairly clear: it ends with a Lombardi Trophy and a parade. Of course, that success only belongs to one team each year—and, critically, isn’t within a reasonable number of possible outcomes for most teams.
That’s right, not all 32 teams have a shot to win the Super Bowl this year. Namely, the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose roster and coaching staff just isn’t good enough to give them a realistic shot at making it that far. As such, the goal posts for a successful season in Jacksonville shift down from the Super Bowl and to the division, or perhaps to the playoffs altogether. At which point, we must ask ourselves: is a playoff berth worth it if it keeps the Jaguars below the upper class of NFL franchises for next year and the foreseeable future?
Let’s take a look at what we can realistically expect from the Jaguars in 2020. This is the Jacksonville’s 2020 schedule, assuming the league year is executed in full:
- Week 1: Colts
- Week 2 @ Titans
- Week 3: Dolphins (TNF)
- Week 4: @ Bengals
- Week 5: @ Texans
- Week 6: Lions
- Week 7: BYE
- Week 8: @ Chargers
- Week 9: Texans
- Week 10: @ Packers
- Week 11: Steelers
- Week 12: Browns
- Week 13: @ Vikings
- Week 14: Titans
- Week 15: @ Ravens
- Week 16: Bears
- Week 17: @ Colts
While game-by-game predictions are a dangerous game given the volatility of the league and the potential for season-altering injuries, we do know that the Jaguars’ current 4 ½ game win total is the lowest figure in the NFL. Even if they overachieve relative to expectation, they are still unlikely to be more than a six-win team.
On their schedule, we can quickly circle several games as losses. The Packers, Steelers, Vikings, and Ravens are all cuts above the Jaguars both in terms of coaching and talent, and in a division with tough squads, I don’t think the Jaguars will be able to win any of their divisional games on the road. If that’s seven losses, you still have nine games on the schedule:
- Week 1: Colts
- Week 3: Dolphins (TNF)
- Week 4: @ Bengals
- Week 6: Lions
- Week 8: @ Chargers
- Week 9: Texans
- Week 12: Browns
- Week 14: Titans
- Week 16: Bears
There are some beatable teams on here. The Dolphins, Bengals, and Bears are all far from complete teams that could struggle enough in their own way to be beatable by the Jags. Assuming Jacksonville is able to split these remaining nine games at 5-4, that still puts them at 5-11 for the season—just above their win total.
A playoff berth for Jacksonville requires at least eight wins, even in an expanded playoff field—each seventh seed team in the 2000s had at least eight wins at the end of the regular season. To get there, the Jaguars would need either an immediate improvement from a defense that lost talent and is still under Todd Wash—who hasn’t impressed during his four-season tenure—or on offense, with new coordinator Jay Gruden.
Last year, when the Jaguars won, it was on the back of their defense, which had a higher expected points total than their offense in three out of their six wins in 2019. But that unit is going to be worse, as no big-ticket free agents or early draft picks can account for the loss of Jalen Ramsey, Calais Campbell, Marcel Dareus, A.J. Bouye, and Telvin Smith across the last calendar year. And the offense, besides changing coordinators, only added Laviska Shenault and Tyler Eifert as significant new ingredients in the formula. As I wrote last week on Gardner Minshew, while he plays with admirable moxie and discernment, he doesn’t have enough talent to really power an offense beyond what they currently are.
It is difficult to imagine this offense being an above-average unit. It is difficult to imagine this defense being an above-average unit. It is difficult to imagine this team being even average, at eight wins, and having a shot at the playoffs.
Is a successful season for the Jaguars then a tank? As was pointed out to me following my Minshew article, the Jaguars are extremely good at getting early draft picks, but terrible at getting the first overall pick, and subsequently having control over an NFL Draft.
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But if the Jaguars aren’t going to be competitive in 2020, they are well-positioned for a hard reset. Gruden is positioned nicely to be an interim head coach following a midseason firing of Doug Marrone, which is likely a bit overdue. Minshew is a galvanizing personality who will keep the team competitive and active during a lame-duck season. The dead cap hit in 2020 is terrifying, but the 2021 year has the Jaguars with almost $100M in space.
Jacksonville is well on their way to rock bottom, whether intentionally or otherwise—but in another spirit, they’re well on their way to a necessary tank. As such, a successful season for the Jaguars positions them to aggressively change the course of the franchise.
Another six-win finish that has them believing in Minshew and Marrone long-term will likely do more harm than good across the next few years. Better to lose now and get into a position to trade for the first overall pick, draft a top quarterback, and spend money on rebuilding your floundering roster.
The Jaguars’ front office under Dave Caldwell has always had a solid eye for talent—they’ve drafted fairly well for the past five years. The necessary changes must be made in the maintaining and development of that talent, in order to build a consistent winner in Jacksonville. It’s time to hand Caldwell a war chest, make a change at head coach, and start a new era of Jacksonville football with Trevor Lawrence at the helm.
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