If you listen to the TDN Fantasy Podcast, you know how much we talk about value. While value is hard to find in the first couple rounds of fantasy football drafts, it can make or break your season in the middle rounds.
Positional value also affects draft strategy, which is why articles like this one can be very helpful. Having a few players in your back pocket as safety options, even if they’re not your primary target heading into your draft, allows you to have way more flexibility on draft day. You can take a chance on a high-risk, high-reward player or snag a player who’s falling at a position you’re already pretty strong in because you know there’s value to be had later on.
Let’s focus specifically on wide receivers. Here are three of the biggest ADP values at the position right now. TDN Premium members can check out more values by position, as well as deeper rankings and player stat projections by clicking here.
Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions
ADP: WR37, No. 94.5 overall
TDN Rank: WR28, No. 59 overall
I cannot fathom why Jones is falling outside of WR3 range in fantasy drafts right now. He finished last season as the WR24 in overall points and the WR19 on a points-per-game basis in PPR formats—and that’s despite playing five games with the combination of Jeff Driskel and David Blough at quarterback. Jones was the WR28 on a per-game basis in 2018, so his productivity certainly didn’t come out of nowhere.
Matthew Stafford returns healthy this season on a team poised to throw a ton. Jones is Stafford’s clear No. 2 option behind Kenny Golladay and will give you WR2 production when he’s on the field. You’ll have to factor in a couple missed games to be safe, but expect Jones to see around 100 targets in 2020.
John Brown, Buffalo Bills
ADP: WR47, No. 118.8 overall
TDN Rank: WR37, No. 78 overall
Yes, Stefon Diggs joins the team after being traded from the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, the Bills produce low passing volume compared to the other teams in the NFL. However, that doesn’t mean you just ignore the player who had the 26th-most targets in the entire NFL last season. Brown led all Bills with 115 targets in 2019. He certainly won’t reach that threshold in 2020, but he’ll still be in the 90s if healthy. Both Brown and Cole Beasley will lose some of their target share to Diggs, but I’d be more worried about Beasley’s volume than Brown’s.
Brown finished as the WR15 in overall points and WR22 on a per-game basis in PPR. He finished with more average weekly points than Tyler Lockett, Cortland Sutton, Stefon Diggs, and Tyler Boyd, just to name a few. While he should be ranked behind all of those players because he’s poised to lose 20ish targets this season, he is still a top-40 WR and should be drafted as such. A 60-850-5 season is doable.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
ADP: WR25, No. 59.3 overall
TDN Rank: WR18, No. 39 overall
I’m as shocked as you probably are that Parker’s name is on this list. Given his breakout 2019 season, how could he possibly be a value pick in 2020 drafts? It seems like some of the hype has dissipated since the end of December.
Parker finished as the WR11 in overall fantasy points and WR15 on a per-game basis in PPR last season if you include Week 17 (he’s the WR13 and WR19 in those respective categories if you don’t include the final regular season game). Nothing about his breakout was a fluke and his situation isn’t changing until maybe rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa takes over late in the season. The Dolphins are going to throw the ball a ton and he has plenty of chemistry with starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. His 72-1202-9 stat line from last season may be a bit optimistic, but 60-1100-8 is certainly in play. For a player going outside of WR2 range right now, that’s a lot of upside.
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