Entering any new NFL season, so much is unknown. As the infamous quote from former Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Mora Sr. goes: “You think you know, but you don't know, and you never will.” The best fantasy managers need to know what they don’t know and be able to research and ask questions before investing draft capital in a player. Sometimes it’s simply finding out about a player’s health. Other times it’s more complicated and one is forced to project how a player may be used differently in a new offense because of a trade, free agent signing, or a new head coach.
This division-by-division series will look at each of the NFL’s 32 teams and ask one fantasy-relevant question that needs to be answered this season. Some will be answered by or before Week 1, others may take 17 weeks to flesh out. Let’s take a look at the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens
How Will Crowded Backfield Be Used?
With Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill already on the running back depth chart, the Ravens spent their second-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft on Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins—they were simply unable to pass up the value of taking the best player available. With four capable running backs, plus quarterback Lamar Jackson, how can Baltimore best distribute the rushing attempt workload?
Many expect Dobbins to have a significant role as a rookie, much like many expected Hill to have one last season. There’s obviously a difference in skill set and draft capital between the two backs, but are those taking Dobbins in the top 100 shrewd or buying too much into the hype? Ingram had a very good 2019 campaign that should be repeatable sans some touchdown regression. Edwards has done everything asked of him as a back-up and has been quite successful himself. Are there too many cooks in the kitchen? Will this crowded backfield suppress its own fantasy value in 2020?
Pittsburgh Steelers
Will JuJu Smith-Schuster Bounce Back?
After having an unbelievable sophomore season in 2018 with 111 catches, 1,426 yards, and seven touchdowns, 2019 was a year to forget for the former USC star. An essentially season-long injury to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, poor quarterback play from the back-ups, and Smith-Schuster’s own injury issues crippled any chance he had to follow up on that breakout season. But Roethlisberger is back, so will Smith-Schuster’s high level of production follow?
Here’s an interesting stat. Smith-Schuster is averaging 78.73 receiving yards per game in contests started by Roethlisberger since making his first catch in Week 2 of his rookie season (2017). That works out to a 16-game average of about 1,260 receiving yards. Now that Smith-Schuster and Roethlisberger are healthy, there’s no reason he can’t be the true WR1 many were expecting when they took him high in fantasy drafts last season.
Cleveland Browns
How Will Kevin Stefanski Change Cleveland’s Offense?
I’ve been harping on this point all offseason, and it’s a big reason why I’m down on pretty much all of the Browns’ non-RB skill position players: Stefanski runs the ball… a lot. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins saw a significant drop in workload when Stefanski was calling plays. His per-game passing attempts dropped from 40.3 to 29.2 and his passing yards dropped from 284.5 to 233.5—Cousins played 18 games under Stefanski compared to 13 games under John DeFilippo in the QB’s Vikings tenure. Will that trend continue in Cleveland, especially since the Browns have two highly-talented running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt?
If Baker Mayfield drops to that 29.2 pass attempts per game mark, that’s 4.2 fewer throws per game than his career average thus far. It’ll mean he has fewer than 500 passing attempts this season and that will trickle down to reduced fantasy production for not only him, but Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Austin Hooper as well.
Cincinnati Bengals
Which Half Of Joe Mixon’s 2019 Season Is For Real?
Through Week 8 of the 2019 season, Mixon ranked as the RB36 on a per-game basis in PPR formats. From Weeks 9-16, he ranked as the RB14 and scored 6.4 more points per game in the second half than the first half. He had 494 yards and three touchdowns from Weeks 14-17 and saw a spike in carries up to 24 per game. Is that what fantasy managers can expect more often than not in 2020?
Mixon has a first-round ADP heading into this season, which is a surprise for someone who finished as the RB22 in average fantasy points per game last year. However, I actually agree that he should be a top option at the turn and believe his much-overdue increased usage in the receiving game will allow him to be an RB1 this season. However, as talented as Mixon is, he’s been streaky.
The addition of rookie quarterback and No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow and the return of Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green has Bengals fans excited for what could be a quality offensive season. Mixon is a big part of that offense and is being given the benefit of the doubt in fantasy drafts right now. He must live up to the hype.
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