It's December 14th, 2019. Joe Burrow graces the New York City stage and accepts the prestigious Heisman Trophy. Just a few months prior, the honor seemed like an impossible achievement—but here he is.
Burrow was a third-stringer at Ohio State, relegated to limited snaps for years, and thought of as nothing but just another high recruit who didn’t pan out. Now he’s an SEC record holder and a national champion. The immense growth is not only a testament to Burrow and his abilities on the turf, but also shows just how instrumental his decision to transfer back in 2018 was.
Yes, there’s still a stigma surrounding NCAA transfers, despite Burrow and recent No. 1 overall NFL Draft picks like Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield doing their best to eliminate it from existence. Weak-minded. Unwilling. Afraid of competition. Those are the types of words that continue to come up on social media after a player announces his intent to enter the transfer portal.
It’s those ignorant stereotypes about transfers that have plagued college football for so long, limiting QBs and other prospects from realizing their full potential. Thankfully, times have changed, as the transfer trend for throwers is fully alive.
Players have acknowledged their power and are putting the future in their own hands. As Burrow and many other NFL QBs can attest, it’s a welcome sight and an encouraging sign of things to come.
https://twitter.com/CDonnick3/status/1271276094461599744?s=20
Proof in the Pudding
The last three first overall picks (and Heisman winners) have been transfers. Seven QBs selected in 2020 played on multiple collegiate teams. Russell Wilson, Gardner Minshew II, Jacoby Brissett, Jarrett Stidham, Nick Foles, and Joe Flacco are all NFL passers who fit these same criteria. So why, when you look at the word transfer in a scouting report, is it immediately assumed to be some type of negative?
“They weren’t good enough to beat out a college teammate, so how are they supposed to make it to the NFL," is typically the misguided response to any collegiate transfer.
While parts of that statement may ring true for certain prospects, the line between playing and riding the bench is a lot less black and white than the casual fan makes it seem. Massive amounts of more talented passers are tossed to the side in college due to seniority and politics at the position, even if they might give the team a better chance at winning. Most college programs also care more about winning than development, which is why they shun younger players with higher upsides for more experienced prospects. Look no further than Ohio State with J.T. Barrett over Dwayne Haskins and Burrow, Alabama with Jalen Hurts over Tua Tagovailoa and even Georgia with Jake Fromm over Justin Fields. And that’s just talking about the top programs with the best coaches. Imagine what’s happening within dysfunctional organizations?
At the end of the day, college teams have continually shown they are too afraid to fix what’s working even if something better might lie right behind them, and QB development is hurting as a result. The best option to combat that is with increased transfers and over the past decade, you've seen just that.
In 2020, seven of the 11 QBs drafted were previous transfers. In 2019, that number was five out of 11. Just a decade ago—in 2010—it was just one out of 14, while in 2009 it was one out of 11. So, what—besides a gradual shift in thinking—changed after all this time? It may be more correlation than actual causation, but there is one name that always rises to the top of the conversation in this regard: Cam Newton.
https://twitter.com/RedditCFB/status/1206035037377847297?s=20
The first high-profile case of the decade, Newton truly started the transfer trend—not only playing at three different colleges, but winning the Heisman and becoming the first overall pick in the process Yes, the reason Newton had to transfer was never about talent (he was kicked off of Florida for a violation of team rules), but it’s undeniable that there’s a pattern between the transfer trend and his unique career.
It’s become apparent over time that—just like how he’s helped redefine the prototypical running QB—Newton has done the same to the perception of transfers. Bigger names like Wilson soon followed his suit—for different reasons of course—but as the first transfer to go No. 1 overall since Jeff George in 1990, Newton can be looked at as the one true player who started it all.
Constant Care
The difference between the QB position and others when it comes to transferring is all about playing time. Other positions can be kept happy because a multitude of different players can earn significant reps. Rotations at QB just don’t work the same way, and it creates a vastly different dynamic as a result.
Holding a clipboard in the NFL while making millions is the dream. Holding a clipboard for free while your career clock slowly expires is a nightmare.
The dichotomy between the two doesn’t mean that one is noble and the other selfish, but rather that each has to be treated in a different context. A college QB isn’t necessarily impatient if he’s not playing and decides to leave. Coaches and teachers can be hugely beneficial, but at the end of the day, you want to put your future in your own hands. You aren’t a quitter if you just re-evaluate your position with a college team constantly, especially one that you aren’t paid to be on.
The problem arises when coaches don’t realize this, but rather pin transfers on a new “soft” and "weak” generation of players. Plenty of programs are so used to making a recruiting pitch, selling a player on that school, and then moving on once that decision has been made. Nowadays, however, players are like plants, needing constant watering and attention. You can't simply sign a player and let him ride the pine or he’s going to recognize his talent and jet. Sure, it was important to have a good relationship with prospects beforehand, but coaches now need to continuously keep their players happy due to a threat that didn’t exist a decade ago. The power has shifted and it’s something that should not only be pointed out but universally embraced.
After all, coaches can leave in the blink of an eye for an opportunity at a better school. Why can’t the players?
Powerhouse Problem?
One of the main arguments against transferring is that it benefits the big, powerhouse programs. On the surface, this rings true. Lincoln Riley has been able to nab three straight transfers and turn them into Heisman threats at Oklahoma, while Ohio State had the benefit of going from Dwayne Haskins straight to Justin Fields due to the latter’s decision to leave Georgia.
What people tend to forget in those arguments, however, is that college football has always been about dynasties. You take out transferring and all the 5-star recruits are still ending up at Alabama or Clemson. The Heisman winner will probably be from an SEC or Big Ten school. At the end of the day, the same usual contenders will rise to the top each season.
At least with prominent transferring in place, recruiting is made more difficult for these same programs, which is just another reason why it's a positive concept. Offering immediate playing time is as enticing as ever and it’s something that the Oklahomas and Alabamas of the world can’t always promise. You might be stuck with a decent QB, try to recruit a star, and lose out on him due to your commitment with the mediocre guy (looking at you Georgia). Teams with poor depth don’t have that same difficult decision and can give you the chance for instant clout.
Ultimately, with both this and the incentivization of graduate transfers in place, you’re not only encouraging education and getting a degree but also giving players more options for their respective football futures.
That’s a BIG win.
Swing and Miss
Yes, a fair amount of QBs that transfer don’t work out (Shea Patterson, Tate Martell, etc). Lots of lower-end players use it as a last-ditch effort, desperate to gain any sort of traction toward a potential NFL career. When looking at big names and high-recruits who struggled early on, however, the hit rate is incredibly good.
Just like in the NFL, fit and scheme are as important as anything, and the rare instances where passers don’t work out at multiple stops is when they prioritize a big-name school over the potential development they offer.
After all, Wisconsin is better than Mississippi State, but if I’m a QB where would I rather go?
Over time, these questions have begun to make their way to the forefront of recruiting and transfer portal decisions—it’s something that will only continue to progress over time. Justin Fields went to a bland, run-first team because it was a top program and close in proximity to his home. He immediately regretted the decision and was able to switch courses, joining a creative, spread system at Ohio State due to the current trend at hand.
https://twitter.com/GrindingTheTape/status/1271268093189337090?s=20
Imagine being robbed of watching a 50-touchdown season because you wanted to punish an 18-year-old for picking the wrong college? If (insert student here) can change their major from engineering to business because they didn't like it, there’s no reason Fields shouldn’t be able to do the same. The transfer trend recognizes this and gives teenagers the second or even third chances they deserve.
NCAA football can’t just be treated as a single entity, but rather as a road that leads to the final destination. If the car in front of you is slowing you down, there should be no shame in signaling, checking your shoulder, and moving lanes to create a better path. Ultimately, QBs like Burrow and Fields have realized this and are reaping the rewards as a result.
Transfers have made college football more exciting, evened out the power struggle between coaches and players, and most importantly, cultivated an ever-growing group of stars that almost fell through the cracks. The trend is here to stay and for all the reasons stated above, that's a very, VERY good thing.
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