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College Football Week 12: Marquee Matchups Trends Report

  • The Draft Network
  • November 18, 2021
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Underdogs continue to wreak havoc on the college football landscape this season, as a whopping 14 teams this season have lost as favorites of at least 20 points. Overall, betting underdogs against FBS teams have won 27.1% of their games outright this season, which would be the highest rate in a single season in the last 15 years according to ESPN Stats & Info. Here are BetPrep’s key trends for the biggest matchups in Week 12.

No. 7 Michigan State (+19) at No. 4 Ohio State

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 67.5)

This is only the second time that Ohio State and Michigan State have met with both teams ranked in the top seven of the AP Poll and the first time since 1951. It’s only the fifth time the two programs have met when both schools were ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll. 

The Buckeyes have won five straight in this series and have covered four in a row against the Spartans. The Under has also been profitable in previous meetings, cashing five times the last six times these two teams have played and five straight in Columbus.

Michigan State Key Trends

  • The Spartans are 7-1-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games overall.
  • MSU is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
  • Sparty is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.

Ohio State Key Trends

  • The Buckeyes have covered five of their last seven games overall, all of which as a favorite.
  • The Over is 8-3-1 in Ohio State’s last 12 conference games.
  • The Over is 8-2 in the Buckeyes’ last 10 games played in the month of November.

Iowa State (+4) at No. 13 Oklahoma

12:00 p.m. ET (O/U: 60)

The Sooners look to rebound from their loss at Baylor last week when they host the Cyclones at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday. What’s at stake for Oklahoma? Only a spot in the Big 12 championship game. That said, the Sooners need to beat Iowa State and have Baylor lose at Kansas State in order to punch their ticket into the conference title game.

The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams, including 4-0 in Norman. The Cyclones have held the advantage at the betting window, covering in five of the last six meetings between the two programs.

Iowa State Key Trends

  • The Cyclones are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games coming off a loss.
  • ISU is 20-9-1 ATS in its last 30 games as an underdog.
  • The Cyclones are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games when facing an opponent with a winning record.

Oklahoma Key Trends

  • The Sooners are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring 20 points or fewer in their previous game.
  • Oklahoma is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games when facing an opponent with a winning road record.
  • The Sooners are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in the month of November.

No. 21 Arkansas (+20.5) at No. 2 Alabama

3:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 58)

No. 2 Alabama just needs to win one of its final two games to clinch the SEC West. Based on Arkansas’ track record against ‘Bama, the odds are in the Crimson Tide’s favor of clinching their spot in the SEC title game as early as Saturday.

The Razorbacks are winless in their last 14 games against the Tide since Nick Saban took over as Alabama’s head coach. Saban is 15-0 against Tennessee and can match that record against Arkansas with a win this weekend. 

The Under has been profitable in previous meetings between these two teams, cashing in five of the last seven Arkansas-Alabama games overall.

Arkansas Key Trends

  • The Razorbacks have fared quite well as an underdog, covering in 12 of their last 16 games when receiving points. They’re also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a road dog.
  • Arkansas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games after scoring less than 20 points in its previous contest. (The Razorbacks only scored 16 points in their 16-13 win over LSU last Saturday in Baton Rouge.)
  • The Over is 5-1 in the Razorbacks’ last six games as a road underdog and is 5-2 in their last seven road games overall.

Alabama Key Trends

  • The Tide are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games (all as the favorite).
  • ‘Bama is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.
  • Saban’s squad is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 conference games.

No. 3 Oregon (+3) at No. 23 Utah

7:30 p.m. ET (O/U: 59)

Oregon can clinch the Pac-12 North with a win this Saturday night against Utah, or an Oregon State loss to Arizona State. That said, the Ducks aren’t the only ones with something on the line this weekend in the Pac-12, as the Utes can wrap up the South with a victory over Oregon or a Sun Devils loss to the Beavers.

The Underdog has covered in four of the previous five meetings between these two teams, while the Over is 7-1 in the last eight Oregon-Utah contests. All three of the Utes’ losses this season have come when they were favored and the Ducks have done well as dogs, winning five of their last six games when catching points.

Oregon Key Trends

  • The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog.
  • Oregon is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against a team with a winning record.
  • The Ducks, however, are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

Utah Key Trends

  • The Utes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games played in the month of November.
  • Utah is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 conference games.
  • The Utes are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a win.

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