Nothing is changing as rapidly in the league as the evaluation and valuation of running backs. Just this week, Leonard Fournette’s release from the Jaguars served as a microcosm. He was a fourth overall pick just over three years ago who hadn’t been unproductive as a volume back, but new understandings of efficiency, offensive line impact, and receiving value all made Fournette an expendable asset.
Now, another running back is on the forefront of the RB value discussion: Alvin Kamara. After missing practice for three days because of a “contract-related” issue, it was leaked this afternoon that the Saints are willing to explore trading Kamara.
https://twitter.com/JosinaAnderson/status/1300890569049346053
We should first note that this is a fairly standard operating procedure. If you have a star player with whom you’re negotiating on a deal, and you can’t seem to find any common ground, you’re going to start looking at trade options. If Kamara and the Saints were close on a deal or had a couple of years to get closer, then the Saints would hold pat—but with Kamara on a contract year, the Saints need to explore all of their options. It would be better to get a pick for Kamara now than wait on the third-round comp pick that would come in 2022.
So the question isn’t so much why the Saints would be willing to trade Kamara—it’s why is this getting leaked? For a team like the Saints, who usually hustle to extend their in-house players at aggressive market prices, this is a rare hesitation to reach into the wallet. The Saints are playing this long because Kamara is in a position of power, and that’s why he’s “holding in” to get a contract done now.
There are a few reasons why Kamara’s in a good spot right now. The first is past performance, which remains a compelling case for Kamara even after the down season he just had.
Kamara is coming off of his worst season as a pro, having played hobbled for most of the 2019 season with what he later would reveal was a torn MCL in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. When speaking with reporters, Kamara admitted that his mentality as a ball-carrier changed from a creator’s to more of a plodder’s.
“...Last year was a lot of just ‘get what I can,’ ‘get in and go down,’ and ‘don’t do too much’ because I could possibly hurt my knee more or it’s too painful to even think about doing making another move.”
The change in capacity and in decision-making was reflected in Kamara’s production. As The Saints Wire noted, Kamara only broke 13 tackles in the final nine games of his 2019 season, after breaking 26 in the first five, before his injury. His yards/reception and yards/carry both continued falling after they regressed in 2018 following his elite rookie season, and his 14 games played was the smallest number in his three-year career.
Why, then, is Kamara at a strong negotiation point? Typically when players come off of injury, they’ve lost negotiation power, as teams want to see them return to health before they shell out a big contract. And that reality is still true of Kamara’s situation—he would be at an even stronger point were he healthy. But given the nature of running back contracts and career arcs, even if Kamara had not dealt with the MCL tear and ankle sprain of 2019, it would still be expected that his performance on his second contract would be worse than his performance on his rookie deal. Even for his declining production and health question mark, Kamara put together the high-caliber performance on his rookie deal that warrants a second contract, while still existing in the reality that second contracts for running backs will always be a difficult negotiation given the expected deterioration at the position. That injury would matter more if he played a different position.
Of course, Kamara’s contract negotiation is the second big running back contract negotiation after the Christian McCaffrey deal, which was so large as to reset the market and expectations for young, passing-game running backs. Kamara’s position opposite the Saints is made stronger by just how much McCaffrey made on that four-year, $64M deal, relative to the deal Derrick Henry signed a few months later, worth $12.5M per year—significantly less than McCaffrey’s $16M APY. In that Kamara is as dangerous of a pass-catcher as he is a runner, he fits the McCaffrey mold.
And finally, Kamara is in a strong spot because the Saints are not. The Saints are as tight as always against the cap as they continue to stuff more and more talent into their roster in the waning years of Drew Brees’ Hall of Fame career, so it does not seem like there is cash abound for Kamara. But there’s always money in the banana stand of Jeff Ireland’s spreadsheets, and the Saints are clearly comfortable with the idea of extending Kamara around market value—it’s just the exact definition of market value that is in contention.
https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1300895620962676736
The Saints are willing to extend Kamara because, for as long as they have Brees, they need a player like Kamara. Brees is a quick-game passer who likes to identify pre-snap matchups and generate chunk plays by hitting YAC winners in stride. A back like Kamara, who can line up in the slot with realistic success, as well as provide an on-schedule gain as a check release safety valve, fits snugly with that play style. If backup Jameis Winston were the presumed starter for 2021, with his vertical orientation, Kamara wouldn’t be as valuable—but for as long as Brees is under contract, which he is for the next two seasons, there is no better back for the Saints.
So the Saints definitely need Kamara this year, and probably will next year, save for a Brees retirement. As such, this is the window for Kamara. If he waits until next offseason, he could not only show his hand to the Saints by revealing his not at full health, but their quarterbacking situation could also change, lowering Kamara’s value to the team. If he waits, he has nothing to gain—if he comes back to full health and productivity, they’ll end up negotiating at the same contract figures they’re discussing now, and be another year closer to the passing of Brees’ torch.
The Saints’ trade rumor should be viewed within the scope of the contract negotiation. As Kamara and his agent told Ian Rapoport, they’ve just been trying to come to terms on this extension; Kamara has been in the building, not practicing as he both comes back to full health and continues engaging in contract discussions.
https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1300901795280101383
A long-term holdout into the season does not seem to be in the cards, and I only imagine it would get discussed if contract discussions continue to spiral south following the Saints’ trade move, which was clearly just a tactic to get Kamara’s price down. For just as Kamara is the best back for the Saints, the Saints are the best offense for Kamara, and he doesn’t want to leave.
So the Saints are trying to gain some ground on Kamara’s camp, and I imagine Kamara’s camp is largely unfazed. How this plays out remains to be seen. Most likely, the Saints and Kamara get a deal done somewhere between $12M and $16M APY, as New Orleans almost certainly discovers that nobody is willing to trade a first-round pick to pay a running back market price. At least, nobody but Bill O’Brien, and that ship has sailed.
If not, this could get ugly. But when a team and a player have the fit and the mutual interest that exists between Kamara and New Orleans, a deal typically gets done.
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