Last month, the Locked On NFL Draft podcast finished its summer scouting week dedicated to running backs. We discussed 16 names likely to enter the 2021 NFL Draft, with film and bio notes on each. We’re currently in our second of two wide receiver weeks, if you’d like to join us in our first intro to the 2021 class.
As such, we’re now able to take a look at some early 2021 draft odds. At BetOnline, they have odds for the first player drafted at a few positions, including running backs. With our film work done and the odds available, I’ve got a few value bets I like for the first runner off the board. Here are the odds as of July 9:
- Clemson RB Travis Etienne (+110)
- Alabama RB Najee Harris (+350)
- Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard (+500)
- Ohio State RB Trey Sermon (+800)
- Georgia RB Zamir White (+900)
- Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill (+1000)
- Ohio State RB Master Teague (+1000)
- Washington State RB Max Borghi (+1000)
- Kansas RB Pooka Williams (+1200)
- UCLA RB Demetric Felton (+1500)
- Memphis RB Kenneth Gainwell (+1500)
- Alabama RB Brian Robinson Jr. (+1600)
- Oregon RB CJ Verdell (+1800)
- UNC RB Michael Carter (+2000)
- Louisiana-Lafayette RB Elijah Mitchell (+2200)
- Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson (+2500)
- Iowa RB Mekhi Sargent (+3000)
- USC RB Stephen Carr (+3300)
- Arkansas RB Rakeem Boyd (+5000)
- UNLV RB Charles Williams (+6000)
The clear favorite is Clemson RB Travis Etienne, and appropriately so: Etienne was a candidate to be one of the first running backs off the board in the lauded 2020 class. Etienne was given a late-first/early-second round grade by the college advisory committee at the end of last season and elected to return to school accordingly, but if that draft prediction held true, he would have been anywhere from the first to fourth running back off the board.
But of course, taking the chalk is never the best route. The books didn’t even have the first running back off the board in 2020 right when we were days away, favoring Georgia RB D’Andre Swift over LSU RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. In some years, like in 2019 (Josh Jacobs) and 2018 (Saquon Barkley), it was all too clear. I always endorse chasing value, especially this far out.
As it stands, however, there are no other alternatives. Najee Harris is a fun rumbler without Etienne’s athleticism or home run ability, and Chuba Hubbard has Etienne’s speed without his vision and tackle-breaking ability. Trey Sermon and Zamir White are yet unproven athletes. The best bet at the top is almost definitely Etienne.
With that said, I would put a flier on Max Borghi, the runner out of Washington State. If Edwards-Helaire’s selection foreshadowed a league-wide adjustment to running back drafting that prioritizes the passing game, there is no better pass-catching back than Borghi, who enjoyed two seasons of the Mike Leach Air Raid offense at Washington State and dominated as a three-level receiving threat. Like Edwards-Helaire, Borghi is a compact frame with great contact balance and good elusiveness.
The nature of the beast is that we cannot predict this far out. Nobody saw anything coming from Jacobs or Edwards-Helaire before they vaulted up to the top of the running back boards in their respective classes. Of course, if any player were too much of an unknown, there wouldn’t be odds available for them.
But of the back half of the odds available, I really like Oregon State RB Jermar Jefferson. He’s the most talented of any back after C.J. Verdell, and maybe more so. Jefferson was a freshman All-American and the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2018, but injured his ankle in the second game of the season and was never right for the remainder of the year, missing three games and another three starts. The combination of speed and power in Jefferson’s frame is certainly NFL-caliber, and if he’s healthy, he’ll go earlier than several names above him on the list.
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