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NFL Draft

20 Fantasy Football Thoughts Heading Into 2020 Season

  • The Draft Network
  • September 2, 2020
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There are only a single-digit amount of days between now and the kickoff of the 2020 NFL regular season. Fantasy football should be at the forefront of your mind as you’re either still waiting to draft or hoping to make some small tweaks to your team before the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs open the season on Thursday Night Football.

Below are 20 thoughts I have before the 2020 season begins. These are everything from interesting tidbits, to rankings, to projections, to draft philosophy, and more. Hopefully they either help you on draft day or are thought-provoking enough to spur further research. Aside from going position by position, the thoughts below are in no particular order of importance. 

  1. You’ll hear the phrase “wait on quarterback” a lot, but what does that really mean? The difference between my QB4 and QB10 is less than 0.98 fantasy points per week. 
  2. Wait on quarterbacks doesn’t mean ignore Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, however. I have Jackson averaging 1.7 points more per game than the QB3 and 2.9 fantasy points more per week than QB6. Just add 0.2 points per week to those numbers for the gap between Mahomes and those players. If they fall to Round 3 and you feel solid at RB, it’s OK to take a shot. 
  3. Last note on QBs, it’s tough to know if or when rookies Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert take over as their teams’ starter, but when they do I anticipate both will be top-15 quarterbacks. Good things come to those who wait.
  4. In a year of uncertainty, it feels like the RB position is as volatile as ever. The players we feel are RB2s by mid-season will look very, very different from those going in that range in ADP right now. Prioritize grabbing a top RB1, if at all possible, like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, or Alvin Kamara (if he solves his contract issue). 
  5. On that note, prioritize drafting a running back in two of the first four rounds minimum, and two of the first three if possible. There is so much WR depth, that you’ll be able to snag plenty of quality options to fill your WR1, WR2, and flex spots in the middle rounds. 
  6. I have 52 WRs projected to score 144 or more PPR fantasy points (9.0 points per week average) this season compared to just 35 RBs.
  7. As typically happens in the pre-draft process, the difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks gets minimized. Christian McCaffrey scored 49.5 more points than any other fantasy player, 96.6 more points than any other flex option, and 156.4 more points than any other RB last season. While no one expects those margins to be replicated this season, I still project a 65.2-point gap between McCaffrey and the next-best fantasy RB this season. There aren’t many people passing on McCaffrey with the No. 1 pick, but if you think the battle for the No. 1 spot is close, it isn’t. 
  8. I’m really excited to watch the opening Thursday Night Football game of the season to see how rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire is used. I have him projected for just under 250 touches (247) this season, which works out to about 15.44 per game. Last season, that would’ve snuck him into the top 20 for most touches in the NFL. Will Andy Reid trust the first-rounder with that kind of workload?
  9. From one hyped rookie to another, I’m going the opposite way and not buying what many in the fantasy community are selling when it comes to J.K. Dobbins. Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Lamar Jackson made up 85.7% of Baltimore’s rushing attempts last season. Even if that percentage drops by 3% and no other back gets a carry, based on my team rushing projections it’s hard to find a path to 100 attempts for Dobbins in 2020. Love the talent, not his current price.  
  10. There aren’t a ton of bounce-back candidates at RB this season, but one I’m keeping a very close eye on is David Johnson. He’s on a new team—with a lack of trusted weapons—with something to prove. If he can stay healthy, a big if, he could be a league-winner. Fun fact from last season: Johnson averaged more than 20 PPR fantasy points per game through Week 6, ranking as the No. 5 overall running back in total points. So remember that not all of last season was awful. Prior to getting hurt and benched, he was returning first-round value. His current ADP is RB19 and he’s ranked as my RB24.
  11. The Jaguars’ RB room became engulfed in confusion when the team released Leonard Fournette on Monday morning. The two names to keep an eye on are Ryquell Armstead and Chris Thompson. Armstead is my guess to get the majority of the early-down work and lead the team in carries. He jumped up to my RB33. Thompson figures to find his old role from Washington down in Jacksonville with his offensive coordinator being his former head coach, Jay Gruden—Thompson now cracks my top 50 RBs. Devine Ozigbo and James Robinson are worth cursory looks but don’t appear to be fantasy-relevant right now. 
  12. While all the fantasy attention in the Colts’ backfield is on star rookie Jonathan Taylor, there is value to be had elsewhere. Marlon Mack is likely opening up the season as the starter and should provide several weeks of value before being phased out. Nyheim Hines is the best, most proven pass-catcher out of the backfield on Indianapolis’ roster and now had a quarterback who loved throwing to Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Mack’s current ADP is RB38 and Hines’ is RB51. 
  13. I continue to be surprised by Julio Jones’ ADP. I know he’s 31, but he has never had fewer than 1,198 yards in any season in which he’s played more than 13 games. He’s led the league in receiving in two of the past five seasons and led in receiving yards per game in three of the last five. He topped the NFL in scrimmage yards per touch in 2019 and finished with 99 catches for 1,394 yards and six touchdowns. He’s my WR3 and I’d take him in the first round. 
  14. Tyler Boyd continues to be undervalued. He finished as the WR19 in average fantasy points per game in 2018 (A.J. Green played nine games) and as the WR26 last season in that category (Green played zero games). The addition of Joe Burrow should provide an upgrade to the Bengals’ offense as a whole, and their issues as an overall squad should force them to throw the ball often. Green has been banged up a bit too this offseason. I don’t understand how Boyd continues to go outside of the top 30 WRs in ADP.
  15. Let’s talk about Will Fuller. He’s ranked as my WR36 with an 11-game projection. But let’s pretend he stays healthy all season. Now, he’ll be facing way more bracket coverage without DeAndre Hopkins on the field than ever before, but his speed, talent, and connection with Deshaun Watson should be able to pull him through. If you guaranteed me he’d play 16 games this season, he’d shoot up all the way into my top 20. 
  16. It’s been a hot minute since Drew Brees had a reliable No. 2 wide receiver. Since the Saints traded Brandin Cooks to the Patriots before the 2017 season, the No. 2 wide receiver on the Saints behind Michael Thomas has averaged 37 receptions per season. That dropped to an average of 29 over the last two years. Enter Emmanuel Sanders, a viable complement for Thomas who could carve out a nice little role in New Orleans. How big of a role is still to be determined. I project a 56/719/5 season, but I’ve already received push back that the projection is low. 
  17. One injured receiver I’m monitoring very closely is Alshon Jeffery. It looks like he’ll avoid PUP to begin the season, but playing Week 1 seems overly optimistic. You’re probably only getting a max of 10-11 games from him at this point but he’s been productive when he’s been on the field for the Eagles. On a per-game basis, he’s finished as the WR22, WR23, and WR38 over the last three seasons. That’s worthy of a bench spot. 
  18. I’m 100% in wait-and-see mode on last year’s rookie WR busts: N’Keal Harry and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside—neither are top-70 options for me. Harry’s reportedly had a tough camp and the separation issues that plagued him in college may make him yet another Patriots WR bust. Conversely, Arcega-Whiteside has reportedly had a strong camp, but where he fits on the current depth chart all season when Jeffery and Jalen Reagor are healthy has me concerned. Remember, it’s not just about where players are on the depth chart right now, it’s about where they will eventually be as we get later in the season. 
  19. The only top-five tight ends I’ll be drafting are Travis Kelce and George Kittle. What I mean by that is, look at the Mahomes/Jackson section above. Kelce and Kittle are head and shoulders better than any of the other tight ends, and I’m not willing to pay a premium for Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller in rounds 3-4. If I miss on the top two, I’ll wait and grab from the glut of depth at the bottom of TE1 territory. 
  20. There’s a defense/special teams unit going outside of the top 200 picks that was No. 1 in the NFL against the run, No. 5 in turnovers, No. 8 in sack rate, and finished as a top-10 fantasy defense last season. From Week 9 on, they were a top-five fantasy DST and ranked No. 1 overall from Weeks 11-17. That unit is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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